Far-Right & Populist Surge

Last updated: 25 May 2026

European Parliament Caucuses After 2024 Elections

The 2024 European Parliament elections saw significant gains for far-right and populist groups. Three main groupings cover the far-right spectrum:

1. Patriots for Europe (PfE)

Formed June 2024 by Orbán, Le Pen, and others
Leader: Jordan Bardella (RN)
Third-largest group in the European Parliament — ~84 MEPs
Includes: RN (France, 30 MEPs), Fidesz (Hungary, pre-defeat), Lega (Italy), FPÖ (Austria), PVV (Netherlands), Vlaams Belang (Belgium), Vox (Spain), Chega (Portugal), Danish People's Party
Campaign slogan: "Make Europe Great Again" — held a "MEGA rally" in Madrid (Feb 2025)
Fiercely anti-EU, nativist, anti-immigration, opposes climate policy

2. European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)

Pre-existing group, centre-right to hard-right
Largest component: Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni, 24 MEPs)
Also includes PiS (Poland), ODS (Czech), Sweden Democrats, Finns Party
4th largest group — ~70 MEPs
More pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO than PfE
Meloni has sought a "respectable far right" positioning — more willing to engage with the EPP

3. Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN)

The farther-right, more radical group
Includes AfD (Germany) — excluded by PfE as too extreme
~25-30 MEPs
More explicitly ethno-nationalist, anti-EU, and pro-Russia

Overall: Far-right and hard-right MEPs across the three groups represent roughly 180-200 seats out of 720 — about 25-28% of the Parliament. They are not a majority but are large enough to influence debates and coalition formation.

Country-by-Country

🇫🇷 France — Rassemblement National

RN under Le Pen (figurehead) and Bardella (leader, MEP) is the dominant opposition force
Topped 2024 European election in France with ~31%
Positioning for 2027 presidential election — Le Pen remains standard-bearer but Bardella increasingly presented as future
Édouard Philippe (ex-PM, centrist/right) seen as early favourite "to beat populists" (BBC)
RN continues to demand: tougher immigration, "national preference" in jobs and welfare, sovereignty from EU institutions
Concern: Le Pen faces potential EU embezzlement trial appeal verdict (7 July 2026) — could bar her from standing

🇩🇪 Germany — AfD, BSW, CDU Shift Right

AfD: Polling 18-22% nationally — second-strongest party. Strong in eastern Germany. Categorised as rechtsextrem in several states. Lead candidate Alice Weidel. Described as "Russia-friendly" — Politico reported Putin's trolls boosting AfD
BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht): Polling 5-8%. Left-populist, anti-immigration, anti-NATO, socially conservative. Complicates coalition arithmetic
CDU shift right: Merz shifted CDU rightward on migration — "asylum turnaround," pushbacks, harder deportations. Deliberate strategy to undercut AfD support, risks normalising far-right positions
Centre-left decline: SPD polling in low teens, Greens also declining (Politico: "Germany's center left is on the brink of oblivion")

🇮🇹 Italy — Giorgia Meloni / Fratelli d'Italia

In government since Oct 2022. Governing coalition with Forza Italia and Lega
More pragmatic than feared on Ukraine and EU — but hard line on migration
Constitutional referendum defeat (23 March 2026): 54% No vs 46% Yes — reform to separate judges/prosecutors rejected
First significant electoral defeat for Meloni. Local elections (May 2026) showed coalition still performing well
Press freedom concerns: Politico reported "A dangerous new phase: Under Meloni, concerns for press freedom in Italy mount"
Polling still ~28-30% for FdI as of early 2026

🇳🇱 Netherlands — Wilders / PVV

PVV won 37 seats in Nov 2023 election (first place)
Dick Schoof became PM (July 2024) — Wilders agreed not to take the premiership
Schoof cabinet collapsed (Feb 2026): PVV withdrew June 2025, NSC withdrew Aug 2025
New election Oct 2025: D66's Rob Jetten narrowly beat Wilders
Jetten (38) became Netherlands' youngest ever and first openly gay PM (23 Feb 2026)
Wilders now in opposition, vowing to oppose everything
PVV had driven "strictest migration regime ever" — including opt-out from EU asylum rules

🇦🇹 Austria — FPÖ

Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) won the 2024 general election (~28.8%, first place)
Could not initially form government due to cordon sanitaire by ÖVP and SPÖ
By 2026, ÖVP increasingly willing to coalise — FPÖ-ÖVP coalition likely as the next government
If Kickl becomes Chancellor, he would be Austria's first far-right leader since WWII
Politico: "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán"
Uses term "Volkskanzler" (Nazi connotations) and calls for "remigration"

🇧🇪 Belgium — Vlaams Belang

Led by Tom Van Grieken. Largest party in Flanders, ~17-20% nationally
Came second in June 2024 federal election (surprise defeat to N-VA's De Wever)
All Flemish parties maintain cordon sanitaire against VB
Joined Orbán's Patriots for Europe in July 2024

🇪🇸 Spain — Vox

Led by Santiago Abascal. Third-largest party (~12-14%)
Vox surged 2023 but could not enter government. PP falling short of majority
In coalition with PP at regional level (Castile and León)
Sánchez's move to grant legal status to 500,000 unauthorised immigrants (Apr 2026) — direct challenge to Vox

🇵🇹 Portugal — Chega

Led by André Ventura. Won 18% in March 2024 election (50 seats) — quadrupled 2022 result
Centre-right AD governs with Chega's support in parliament
Chega underperformed expectations in 2025 local elections — suggests a ceiling on support

🇸🇪 Sweden — Sweden Democrats (SD)

Led by Jimmie Åkesson. Second-largest party (~20-22%)
Propping up Kristersson's centre-right coalition via Tidö Agreement
Next election: 13 September 2026. SD positioning to strengthen its kingmaker role
Successfully pushed most restrictive migration policy in Swedish history

🇫🇮 Finland — Finns Party

Led by Riikka Purra (also Finance Minister) — second-largest party, formal coalition partner
Repeatedly damaged by racism scandals but remains in government ~18-20%
Purra's position as Finance Minister in austerity government has forced compromises

🇭🇺 Hungary — Orbán's Fall (April 2026)

The single biggest European political story of 2026.

Viktor Orbán and Fidesz defeated after 16 years in power (since 2010)
Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party won a landslide
BBC: "Orbán's era was over in a flash and Hungary's next PM is a man in a hurry"
Why Orbán lost: massive corruption scandal (pedophile cover-up), economy/inflation/cost-of-living crisis, EU funds frozen, Magyar's effective grassroots campaigning ("Walk for Hungary" demonstrations 2024-25), younger voters turning decisively against Fidesz, fatigue with "illiberal democracy" after 16 years
Magyar: Pro-EU, anti-corruption, rule of law restoration, reconciliation with Brussels
Trump's association became toxic — Politico: "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026)
Orbán's removal cleared the way for EU sanctions on Israeli settlers he had previously blocked

🇵🇱 Poland — PiS Lost Power (2023)

PiS lost Oct 2023 election to Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition
PiS remains largest single party (~33-35%). Strong in rural/eastern Poland
Karol Nawrocki (PiS-aligned) won 2025 presidential election — gives PiS veto power over legislation
PiS in financial trouble — national election commission rejected its financial report (Nov 2024)

🇸🇰 Slovakia — Fico / Smer

Fico returned to power Sept 2023 — pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine
PES permanently expelled Smer for far-right turn (Sept 2025)
Fico survived assassination attempt (2024) — used it to attack opposition and media
Government broadly unpopular but Fico's grip remains firm

What's Driving the Surge?

Migration (dominant factor) — 2015-16 refugee crisis reshaped politics. Ongoing Mediterranean arrivals, integration difficulties keep immigration as the top issue
Cost-of-living / economic insecurity — post-COVID inflation, Ukraine war energy crisis, housing shortages
Cultural backlash — against LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality, environmental regulation, multiculturalism
Distrust of institutions — mainstream parties, media, EU institutions seen as out of touch. Corruption scandals play into anti-establishment narratives
Farmer protests — 2023-24 protests across Europe channelled by far right
Russian influence — Politico (May 2026): "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right"
Trump factor (mixed) — initially energised European far right, but by 2026 his association became toxic (Politico, Apr 2026)

How Has the Mainstream Responded?

Dominant response: co-option, not resistance.

Commission (von der Leyen): Moved steadily rightward on migration — New Pact on Migration, returns deals, externalisation
EPP (Weber): Co-opting far-right positions while maintaining leaky cordon sanitaire on formal coalitions
National mainstream right: CDU under Merz, PP in Spain, KOK in Finland, Moderates in Sweden — all shifting right
Cordons sanitaires: Still intact in Belgium, France (fraying), partially in Germany. Collapsing in Austria. Abandoned in Sweden and Finland
Left/Socialist response: Limited. The left has largely accepted rightward framing on migration

Overall verdict: The mainstream has largely conceded the argument on migration and adopted far-right framing, while maintaining institutional barriers to formal power-sharing — barriers that are fraying.

Migration Policy Shift — "Fortress Europe"

New Pact on Migration and Asylum (adopted 2024): Mandatory border screening, faster asylum procedures at borders, solidarity mechanism (relocations or financial contributions), expanded detention
Returns hubs: Commission finalising a plan for "return hubs" in third countries (echoing Australia's offshore processing and UK's Rwanda plan) — Politico (20 May 2026): "EU closes in on migrant returns deal"
EU-Tunisia deal (July 2023) — paying third countries to prevent departures. Replicated with Libya, Mauritania, Turkey
UK-EU cooperation on returns being discussed as part of the reset

Sources

Politico Europe — multiple articles on far-right surge, migration, Orbán defeat
BBC News — country-by-country election results and analysis
Politico Europe — "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026)
Politico Europe — "EU closes in on migrant returns deal" (20 May 2026)
Politico Europe — "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán"
Politico Europe — "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right" (May 2026)
BBC News — "Jordan Bardella to lead far-right European Parliament group Patriots for Europe"
BBC News — "Hungary's new PM Magyar sworn in after landslide victory"
Wikipedia — 2024 European Parliament election