# Far-Right & Populist Surge # Far-Right & Populist Surge **Last updated:** 25 May 2026 --- ## European Parliament Caucuses After 2024 Elections The 2024 European Parliament elections saw significant gains for far-right and populist groups. Three main groupings cover the far-right spectrum: ### 1. Patriots for Europe (PfE) - Formed June 2024 by Orbán, Le Pen, and others - **Leader:** Jordan Bardella (RN) - **Third-largest group** in the European Parliament — ~84 MEPs - Includes: RN (France, 30 MEPs), Fidesz (Hungary, pre-defeat), Lega (Italy), FPÖ (Austria), PVV (Netherlands), Vlaams Belang (Belgium), Vox (Spain), Chega (Portugal), Danish People's Party - Campaign slogan: "Make Europe Great Again" — held a "MEGA rally" in Madrid (Feb 2025) - Fiercely anti-EU, nativist, anti-immigration, opposes climate policy ### 2. European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) - Pre-existing group, centre-right to hard-right - Largest component: Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni, 24 MEPs) - Also includes PiS (Poland), ODS (Czech), Sweden Democrats, Finns Party - **4th largest group** — ~70 MEPs - More pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO than PfE - Meloni has sought a "respectable far right" positioning — more willing to engage with the EPP ### 3. Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) - The farther-right, more radical group - **Includes AfD** (Germany) — excluded by PfE as too extreme - ~25-30 MEPs - More explicitly ethno-nationalist, anti-EU, and pro-Russia **Overall:** Far-right and hard-right MEPs across the three groups represent roughly 180-200 seats out of 720 — about 25-28% of the Parliament. They are not a majority but are large enough to influence debates and coalition formation. --- ## Country-by-Country ### 🇫🇷 France — Rassemblement National - RN under Le Pen (figurehead) and Bardella (leader, MEP) is the dominant opposition force - Topped 2024 European election in France with ~31% - Positioning for **2027 presidential election** — Le Pen remains standard-bearer but Bardella increasingly presented as future - Édouard Philippe (ex-PM, centrist/right) seen as early favourite "to beat populists" (BBC) - RN continues to demand: tougher immigration, "national preference" in jobs and welfare, sovereignty from EU institutions - **Concern:** Le Pen faces potential EU embezzlement trial appeal verdict (7 July 2026) — could bar her from standing ### 🇩🇪 Germany — AfD, BSW, CDU Shift Right - **AfD:** Polling 18-22% nationally — second-strongest party. Strong in eastern Germany. Categorised as *rechtsextrem* in several states. Lead candidate Alice Weidel. Described as "Russia-friendly" — Politico reported Putin's trolls boosting AfD - **BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht):** Polling 5-8%. Left-populist, anti-immigration, anti-NATO, socially conservative. Complicates coalition arithmetic - **CDU shift right:** Merz shifted CDU rightward on migration — "asylum turnaround," pushbacks, harder deportations. Deliberate strategy to undercut AfD support, risks normalising far-right positions - **Centre-left decline:** SPD polling in low teens, Greens also declining (Politico: "Germany's center left is on the brink of oblivion") ### 🇮🇹 Italy — Giorgia Meloni / Fratelli d'Italia - In government since Oct 2022. Governing coalition with Forza Italia and Lega - More pragmatic than feared on Ukraine and EU — but hard line on migration - **Constitutional referendum defeat (23 March 2026):** 54% No vs 46% Yes — reform to separate judges/prosecutors rejected - First significant electoral defeat for Meloni. Local elections (May 2026) showed coalition still performing well - Press freedom concerns: Politico reported "A dangerous new phase: Under Meloni, concerns for press freedom in Italy mount" - Polling still ~28-30% for FdI as of early 2026 ### 🇳🇱 Netherlands — Wilders / PVV - PVV won 37 seats in Nov 2023 election (first place) - Dick Schoof became PM (July 2024) — Wilders agreed not to take the premiership - **Schoof cabinet collapsed (Feb 2026):** PVV withdrew June 2025, NSC withdrew Aug 2025 - **New election Oct 2025:** D66's Rob Jetten narrowly beat Wilders - Jetten (38) became Netherlands' youngest ever and first openly gay PM (23 Feb 2026) - Wilders now in opposition, vowing to oppose everything - PVV had driven "strictest migration regime ever" — including opt-out from EU asylum rules ### 🇦🇹 Austria — FPÖ - **Herbert Kickl (FPÖ)** won the 2024 general election (~28.8%, first place) - Could not initially form government due to cordon sanitaire by ÖVP and SPÖ - By 2026, ÖVP increasingly willing to coalise — **FPÖ-ÖVP coalition likely as the next government** - If Kickl becomes Chancellor, he would be Austria's first far-right leader since WWII - Politico: "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán" - Uses term "Volkskanzler" (Nazi connotations) and calls for "remigration" ### 🇧🇪 Belgium — Vlaams Belang - Led by Tom Van Grieken. Largest party in Flanders, ~17-20% nationally - Came second in June 2024 federal election (surprise defeat to N-VA's De Wever) - All Flemish parties maintain cordon sanitaire against VB - Joined Orbán's Patriots for Europe in July 2024 ### 🇪🇸 Spain — Vox - Led by Santiago Abascal. Third-largest party (~12-14%) - Vox surged 2023 but could not enter government. PP falling short of majority - In coalition with PP at regional level (Castile and León) - Sánchez's move to grant legal status to 500,000 unauthorised immigrants (Apr 2026) — direct challenge to Vox ### 🇵🇹 Portugal — Chega - Led by André Ventura. Won 18% in March 2024 election (50 seats) — quadrupled 2022 result - Centre-right AD governs with Chega's support in parliament - Chega underperformed expectations in 2025 local elections — suggests a ceiling on support ### 🇸🇪 Sweden — Sweden Democrats (SD) - Led by Jimmie Åkesson. Second-largest party (~20-22%) - Propping up Kristersson's centre-right coalition via Tidö Agreement - Next election: 13 September 2026. SD positioning to strengthen its kingmaker role - Successfully pushed most restrictive migration policy in Swedish history ### 🇫🇮 Finland — Finns Party - Led by Riikka Purra (also Finance Minister) — second-largest party, formal coalition partner - Repeatedly damaged by racism scandals but remains in government ~18-20% - Purra's position as Finance Minister in austerity government has forced compromises ### 🇭🇺 Hungary — Orbán's Fall (April 2026) **The single biggest European political story of 2026.** - **Viktor Orbán** and Fidesz defeated after 16 years in power (since 2010) - **Péter Magyar** and the Tisza Party won a landslide - BBC: "Orbán's era was over in a flash and Hungary's next PM is a man in a hurry" - **Why Orbán lost:** massive corruption scandal (pedophile cover-up), economy/inflation/cost-of-living crisis, EU funds frozen, Magyar's effective grassroots campaigning ("Walk for Hungary" demonstrations 2024-25), younger voters turning decisively against Fidesz, fatigue with "illiberal democracy" after 16 years - **Magyar:** Pro-EU, anti-corruption, rule of law restoration, reconciliation with Brussels - Trump's association became toxic — Politico: "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026) - Orbán's removal cleared the way for EU sanctions on Israeli settlers he had previously blocked ### 🇵🇱 Poland — PiS Lost Power (2023) - PiS lost Oct 2023 election to Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition - PiS remains largest single party (~33-35%). Strong in rural/eastern Poland - **Karol Nawrocki (PiS-aligned)** won 2025 presidential election — gives PiS veto power over legislation - PiS in financial trouble — national election commission rejected its financial report (Nov 2024) ### 🇸🇰 Slovakia — Fico / Smer - Fico returned to power Sept 2023 — pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine - PES permanently expelled Smer for far-right turn (Sept 2025) - Fico survived assassination attempt (2024) — used it to attack opposition and media - Government broadly unpopular but Fico's grip remains firm --- ## What's Driving the Surge? 1. **Migration** (dominant factor) — 2015-16 refugee crisis reshaped politics. Ongoing Mediterranean arrivals, integration difficulties keep immigration as the top issue 2. **Cost-of-living / economic insecurity** — post-COVID inflation, Ukraine war energy crisis, housing shortages 3. **Cultural backlash** — against LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality, environmental regulation, multiculturalism 4. **Distrust of institutions** — mainstream parties, media, EU institutions seen as out of touch. Corruption scandals play into anti-establishment narratives 5. **Farmer protests** — 2023-24 protests across Europe channelled by far right 6. **Russian influence** — Politico (May 2026): "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right" 7. **Trump factor (mixed)** — initially energised European far right, but by 2026 his association became toxic (Politico, Apr 2026) ## How Has the Mainstream Responded? **Dominant response: co-option, not resistance.** - **Commission (von der Leyen):** Moved steadily rightward on migration — New Pact on Migration, returns deals, externalisation - **EPP (Weber):** Co-opting far-right positions while maintaining leaky cordon sanitaire on formal coalitions - **National mainstream right:** CDU under Merz, PP in Spain, KOK in Finland, Moderates in Sweden — all shifting right - **Cordons sanitaires:** Still intact in Belgium, France (fraying), partially in Germany. Collapsing in Austria. **Abandoned** in Sweden and Finland - **Left/Socialist response:** Limited. The left has largely accepted rightward framing on migration **Overall verdict:** The mainstream has largely conceded the argument on migration and adopted far-right framing, while maintaining institutional barriers to formal power-sharing — barriers that are fraying. --- ## Migration Policy Shift — "Fortress Europe" - **New Pact on Migration and Asylum (adopted 2024):** Mandatory border screening, faster asylum procedures at borders, solidarity mechanism (relocations or financial contributions), expanded detention - **Returns hubs:** Commission finalising a plan for "return hubs" in third countries (echoing Australia's offshore processing and UK's Rwanda plan) — Politico (20 May 2026): "EU closes in on migrant returns deal" - **EU-Tunisia deal** (July 2023) — paying third countries to prevent departures. Replicated with Libya, Mauritania, Turkey - **UK-EU cooperation on returns** being discussed as part of the reset --- ## Sources - Politico Europe — multiple articles on far-right surge, migration, Orbán defeat - BBC News — country-by-country election results and analysis - Politico Europe — "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026) - Politico Europe — "EU closes in on migrant returns deal" (20 May 2026) - Politico Europe — "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán" - Politico Europe — "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right" (May 2026) - BBC News — "Jordan Bardella to lead far-right European Parliament group Patriots for Europe" - BBC News — "Hungary's new PM Magyar sworn in after landslide victory" - Wikipedia — 2024 European Parliament election