Far-Right & Populist Surge

Far-Right & Populist Surge 
 Last updated: 25 May 2026 
 
 European Parliament Caucuses After 2024 Elections 
 The 2024 European Parliament elections saw significant gains for far-right and populist groups. Three main groupings cover the far-right spectrum: 
 1. Patriots for Europe (PfE) 
 
 Formed June 2024 by Orbán, Le Pen, and others 
 Leader: Jordan Bardella (RN) 
 Third-largest group in the European Parliament — ~84 MEPs 
 Includes: RN (France, 30 MEPs), Fidesz (Hungary, pre-defeat), Lega (Italy), FPÖ (Austria), PVV (Netherlands), Vlaams Belang (Belgium), Vox (Spain), Chega (Portugal), Danish People's Party 
 Campaign slogan: "Make Europe Great Again" — held a "MEGA rally" in Madrid (Feb 2025) 
 Fiercely anti-EU, nativist, anti-immigration, opposes climate policy 
 
 2. European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) 
 
 Pre-existing group, centre-right to hard-right 
 Largest component: Fratelli d'Italia (Meloni, 24 MEPs) 
 Also includes PiS (Poland), ODS (Czech), Sweden Democrats, Finns Party 
 4th largest group — ~70 MEPs 
 More pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO than PfE 
 Meloni has sought a "respectable far right" positioning — more willing to engage with the EPP 
 
 3. Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) 
 
 The farther-right, more radical group 
 Includes AfD (Germany) — excluded by PfE as too extreme 
 ~25-30 MEPs 
 More explicitly ethno-nationalist, anti-EU, and pro-Russia 
 
 Overall: Far-right and hard-right MEPs across the three groups represent roughly 180-200 seats out of 720 — about 25-28% of the Parliament. They are not a majority but are large enough to influence debates and coalition formation. 
 
 Country-by-Country 
 🇫🇷 France — Rassemblement National 
 
 RN under Le Pen (figurehead) and Bardella (leader, MEP) is the dominant opposition force 
 Topped 2024 European election in France with ~31% 
 Positioning for 2027 presidential election — Le Pen remains standard-bearer but Bardella increasingly presented as future 
 Édouard Philippe (ex-PM, centrist/right) seen as early favourite "to beat populists" (BBC) 
 RN continues to demand: tougher immigration, "national preference" in jobs and welfare, sovereignty from EU institutions 
 Concern: Le Pen faces potential EU embezzlement trial appeal verdict (7 July 2026) — could bar her from standing 
 
 🇩🇪 Germany — AfD, BSW, CDU Shift Right 
 
 AfD: Polling 18-22% nationally — second-strongest party. Strong in eastern Germany. Categorised as rechtsextrem in several states. Lead candidate Alice Weidel. Described as "Russia-friendly" — Politico reported Putin's trolls boosting AfD 
 BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht): Polling 5-8%. Left-populist, anti-immigration, anti-NATO, socially conservative. Complicates coalition arithmetic 
 CDU shift right: Merz shifted CDU rightward on migration — "asylum turnaround," pushbacks, harder deportations. Deliberate strategy to undercut AfD support, risks normalising far-right positions 
 Centre-left decline: SPD polling in low teens, Greens also declining (Politico: "Germany's center left is on the brink of oblivion") 
 
 🇮🇹 Italy — Giorgia Meloni / Fratelli d'Italia 
 
 In government since Oct 2022. Governing coalition with Forza Italia and Lega 
 More pragmatic than feared on Ukraine and EU — but hard line on migration 
 Constitutional referendum defeat (23 March 2026): 54% No vs 46% Yes — reform to separate judges/prosecutors rejected 
 First significant electoral defeat for Meloni. Local elections (May 2026) showed coalition still performing well 
 Press freedom concerns: Politico reported "A dangerous new phase: Under Meloni, concerns for press freedom in Italy mount" 
 Polling still ~28-30% for FdI as of early 2026 
 
 🇳🇱 Netherlands — Wilders / PVV 
 
 PVV won 37 seats in Nov 2023 election (first place) 
 Dick Schoof became PM (July 2024) — Wilders agreed not to take the premiership 
 Schoof cabinet collapsed (Feb 2026): PVV withdrew June 2025, NSC withdrew Aug 2025 
 New election Oct 2025: D66's Rob Jetten narrowly beat Wilders 
 Jetten (38) became Netherlands' youngest ever and first openly gay PM (23 Feb 2026) 
 Wilders now in opposition, vowing to oppose everything 
 PVV had driven "strictest migration regime ever" — including opt-out from EU asylum rules 
 
 🇦🇹 Austria — FPÖ 
 
 Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) won the 2024 general election (~28.8%, first place) 
 Could not initially form government due to cordon sanitaire by ÖVP and SPÖ 
 By 2026, ÖVP increasingly willing to coalise — FPÖ-ÖVP coalition likely as the next government 
 If Kickl becomes Chancellor, he would be Austria's first far-right leader since WWII 
 Politico: "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán" 
 Uses term "Volkskanzler" (Nazi connotations) and calls for "remigration" 
 
 🇧🇪 Belgium — Vlaams Belang 
 
 Led by Tom Van Grieken. Largest party in Flanders, ~17-20% nationally 
 Came second in June 2024 federal election (surprise defeat to N-VA's De Wever) 
 All Flemish parties maintain cordon sanitaire against VB 
 Joined Orbán's Patriots for Europe in July 2024 
 
 🇪🇸 Spain — Vox 
 
 Led by Santiago Abascal. Third-largest party (~12-14%) 
 Vox surged 2023 but could not enter government. PP falling short of majority 
 In coalition with PP at regional level (Castile and León) 
 Sánchez's move to grant legal status to 500,000 unauthorised immigrants (Apr 2026) — direct challenge to Vox 
 
 🇵🇹 Portugal — Chega 
 
 Led by André Ventura. Won 18% in March 2024 election (50 seats) — quadrupled 2022 result 
 Centre-right AD governs with Chega's support in parliament 
 Chega underperformed expectations in 2025 local elections — suggests a ceiling on support 
 
 🇸🇪 Sweden — Sweden Democrats (SD) 
 
 Led by Jimmie Åkesson. Second-largest party (~20-22%) 
 Propping up Kristersson's centre-right coalition via Tidö Agreement 
 Next election: 13 September 2026. SD positioning to strengthen its kingmaker role 
 Successfully pushed most restrictive migration policy in Swedish history 
 
 🇫🇮 Finland — Finns Party 
 
 Led by Riikka Purra (also Finance Minister) — second-largest party, formal coalition partner 
 Repeatedly damaged by racism scandals but remains in government ~18-20% 
 Purra's position as Finance Minister in austerity government has forced compromises 
 
 🇭🇺 Hungary — Orbán's Fall (April 2026) 
 The single biggest European political story of 2026. 
 
 Viktor Orbán and Fidesz defeated after 16 years in power (since 2010) 
 Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party won a landslide 
 BBC: "Orbán's era was over in a flash and Hungary's next PM is a man in a hurry" 
 Why Orbán lost: massive corruption scandal (pedophile cover-up), economy/inflation/cost-of-living crisis, EU funds frozen, Magyar's effective grassroots campaigning ("Walk for Hungary" demonstrations 2024-25), younger voters turning decisively against Fidesz, fatigue with "illiberal democracy" after 16 years 
 Magyar: Pro-EU, anti-corruption, rule of law restoration, reconciliation with Brussels 
 Trump's association became toxic — Politico: "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026) 
 Orbán's removal cleared the way for EU sanctions on Israeli settlers he had previously blocked 
 
 🇵🇱 Poland — PiS Lost Power (2023) 
 
 PiS lost Oct 2023 election to Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition 
 PiS remains largest single party (~33-35%). Strong in rural/eastern Poland 
 Karol Nawrocki (PiS-aligned) won 2025 presidential election — gives PiS veto power over legislation 
 PiS in financial trouble — national election commission rejected its financial report (Nov 2024) 
 
 🇸🇰 Slovakia — Fico / Smer 
 
 Fico returned to power Sept 2023 — pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine 
 PES permanently expelled Smer for far-right turn (Sept 2025) 
 Fico survived assassination attempt (2024) — used it to attack opposition and media 
 Government broadly unpopular but Fico's grip remains firm 
 
 
 What's Driving the Surge? 
 
 Migration (dominant factor) — 2015-16 refugee crisis reshaped politics. Ongoing Mediterranean arrivals, integration difficulties keep immigration as the top issue 
 Cost-of-living / economic insecurity — post-COVID inflation, Ukraine war energy crisis, housing shortages 
 Cultural backlash — against LGBTQ+ rights, gender equality, environmental regulation, multiculturalism 
 Distrust of institutions — mainstream parties, media, EU institutions seen as out of touch. Corruption scandals play into anti-establishment narratives 
 Farmer protests — 2023-24 protests across Europe channelled by far right 
 Russian influence — Politico (May 2026): "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right" 
 Trump factor (mixed) — initially energised European far right, but by 2026 his association became toxic (Politico, Apr 2026) 
 
 How Has the Mainstream Responded? 
 Dominant response: co-option, not resistance. 
 
 Commission (von der Leyen): Moved steadily rightward on migration — New Pact on Migration, returns deals, externalisation 
 EPP (Weber): Co-opting far-right positions while maintaining leaky cordon sanitaire on formal coalitions 
 National mainstream right: CDU under Merz, PP in Spain, KOK in Finland, Moderates in Sweden — all shifting right 
 Cordons sanitaires: Still intact in Belgium, France (fraying), partially in Germany. Collapsing in Austria. Abandoned in Sweden and Finland 
 Left/Socialist response: Limited. The left has largely accepted rightward framing on migration 
 
 Overall verdict: The mainstream has largely conceded the argument on migration and adopted far-right framing, while maintaining institutional barriers to formal power-sharing — barriers that are fraying. 
 
 Migration Policy Shift — "Fortress Europe" 
 
 New Pact on Migration and Asylum (adopted 2024): Mandatory border screening, faster asylum procedures at borders, solidarity mechanism (relocations or financial contributions), expanded detention 
 Returns hubs: Commission finalising a plan for "return hubs" in third countries (echoing Australia's offshore processing and UK's Rwanda plan) — Politico (20 May 2026): "EU closes in on migrant returns deal" 
 EU-Tunisia deal (July 2023) — paying third countries to prevent departures. Replicated with Libya, Mauritania, Turkey 
 UK-EU cooperation on returns being discussed as part of the reset 
 
 
 Sources 
 
 Politico Europe — multiple articles on far-right surge, migration, Orbán defeat 
 BBC News — country-by-country election results and analysis 
 Politico Europe — "Trump turns totally toxic for Europe's far right" (Apr 2026) 
 Politico Europe — "EU closes in on migrant returns deal" (20 May 2026) 
 Politico Europe — "In Austria's Kickl, the EU has its next Orbán" 
 Politico Europe — "Putin's trolls are weakening Merz to boost Russia-friendly far right" (May 2026) 
 BBC News — "Jordan Bardella to lead far-right European Parliament group Patriots for Europe" 
 BBC News — "Hungary's new PM Magyar sworn in after landslide victory" 
 Wikipedia — 2024 European Parliament election