EU Institutions & Governance

Last updated: 25 May 2026

European Commission — von der Leyen II (2024-2029)

Ursula von der Leyen secured a second term as Commission President after the 2024 European Parliament elections, backed by EPP, S&D, and Renew. Her second-term priorities are built around the EU Strategic Agenda 2024-2029, focusing on security, competitiveness, and climate transition — but with the political centre of gravity shifted rightwards.

Key new commissioners and portfolio shifts

Post-2024 election reshuffle gave more influence to EPP-aligned commissioners. Key portfolios:

Competitiveness and industrial policy — elevated as the dominant agenda, reflecting pressure from member states to prioritise economic growth over regulation
Defence and security — a new dedicated portfolio reflecting the post-Ukraine war, post-Trump shift
Migration and border management — hardened line, reflecting the Pact on Migration's adoption and the broader European rightward shift

Political direction

Von der Leyen has shifted the Commission steadily rightward on migration and competitiveness
"Stealth migration drop" — Politico reported (Nov 2025) that the Commission pushed restrictive measures through without full parliamentary scrutiny
The Green Deal remains formally intact but has been deprioritised relative to industrial competitiveness
The 2040 climate target (90% net reduction) was proposed July 2025 but softened by member state pushback

European Parliament — 2024-2029 Term

Composition after June 2024 elections:

EPP (centre-right): largest group ~185 seats
S&D (social democrats): second ~135 seats
Renew Europe (liberals): third ~80 seats
Patriots for Europe (far right): ~84 seats — led by Jordan Bardella (RN)
ECR (hard right): ~70 seats — led by Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia
Greens/EFA: declined to ~50 seats
The Left: ~35 seats
ESN (far right, including AfD): ~25 seats

The pro-EU coalition (EPP+S&D+Renew) still holds a majority but is narrower than in 2019-2024. The far right now controls roughly 25-28% of seats across three groups (PfE, ECR, ESN). This has shifted the political centre of gravity — the EPP increasingly votes with the right on migration and competitiveness issues.

European Council — Key Dynamics

Orbán's fall (April 2026) is the single biggest shift — Hungary under Péter Magyar is now pro-EU, pro-rule of law. This removes the most consistent veto player on Ukraine aid, sanctions, and enlargement.
Macron is serving out his final year (lame duck, cannot run again 2027)
Scholz replaced by Friedrich Merz (CDU) after Germany's Feb 2025 election — more Atlanticist on defence, more conservative on migration
Meloni remains in power but weakened by March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat
Tusk (Poland) back at the table after PiS lost power — driving rule of law restoration and EU fund unlocking
Rutte is now NATO Secretary-General (since Oct 2024) — replaced by Dick Schoof then Rob Jetten in the Netherlands

Qualified Majority Voting Reform

The debate around moving foreign policy and taxation to QMV (away from national veto) has intensified:

Enlargement reform: Phased accession and QMV on enlargement decisions being discussed as necessary for a 35+ member EU
Sanctions: Orbán's serial vetoes on Russia sanctions before his fall strengthened the case for QMV
Taxation: Still unanimous — no progress on moving to QMV
Foreign policy: Some member states (Germany, France, Benelux) pushing for QMV on foreign policy decisions; others (smaller states) resisting

Rule of Law — Article 7 and Member States

Hungary (Post-Orbán)

The biggest rule of law story of 2026. Péter Magyar's Tisza Party won a landslide in the April 2026 election, ending 16 years of Fidesz rule. Key developments:

EU frozen funds now likely to be unblocked — Magyar met von der Leyen in April 2026 to discuss
Article 7 proceedings likely to be wound down
The European Parliament's rule of law rapporteur has already signalled a reset in relations

Poland (Under Tusk)

Tusk's government has been systematically reversing PiS's judicial reforms
EU funds (€137 billion in RRF and cohesion) were unblocked in early 2024 after milestones were met
However, PiS-allied President Duda (until Aug 2025) used veto powers to block some reforms — and PiS-aligned Karol Nawrocki won the 2025 presidential election, giving PiS-aligned veto power until 2030
Next PiS trial: Former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro is reportedly a fugitive in the US facing 26 charges

Slovakia (Under Fico)

Fico's third-term government is moving to dismantle rule of law protections
Whistleblower protections under threat (blocked by courts Dec 2025)
Party of European Socialists permanently expelled Smer for its far-right turn (Sept 2025)
Pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine stance isolates Slovakia within the EU

Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 — Priorities

A prosperous and competitive Europe — industrial policy, single market deepening, regulatory simplification
A green and just transition — Green Deal, REPowerEU, Fit for 55 delivery
A secure Europe — defence integration, security partnerships, border management
A Europe that protects democracy — rule of law, media freedom, anti-disinformation
A stronger Europe in the world — enlargement, neighbourhood policy, global partnerships

Next MFF Negotiations (2028-2034)

The next Multiannual Financial Framework will be the first negotiated with a potential EU of 30+ members
Key debates: defence spending (new European Defence Fund expected to be substantially larger), agricultural subsidies (CAP reform inevitable with Ukrainian accession reducing budget for existing members), cohesion policy reform
Net contributor countries (Germany, Netherlands, Sweden) pushing for budget discipline
EU's own resources debate continues — digital levy, CBAM revenues, ETS expansion as potential new EU-level revenues

Sources

Politico Europe — "The incredible shrinking German chancellor" (May 2026)
Politico Europe — "Commission's stealth migration drop hits Parliament" (Nov 2025)
BBC News — "Hungary's new PM Magyar sworn in after landslide victory over Orbán" (Apr 2026)
BBC News — "Poland's PiS opposition sinks deeper into financial trouble" (Nov 2024)
Politico Europe — "Orbán's exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe" (Apr 2026)
Politico Europe — "Hungary's Magyar meets von der Leyen to game-plan unlocking frozen EU funds" (Apr 2026)
European Commission — Strategic Agenda 2024-2029
Wikipedia — Von der Leyen Commission II
Wikipedia — 2024 European Parliament election
Politico Europe — "Slovak court stalls Fico's drive to scrap whistleblower protections" (Dec 2025)