Climate & Energy

Last updated: 25 May 2026

European Green Deal — Implementation Status

The Green Deal remains formally intact but has been depoliticised and partially deprioritised relative to industrial competitiveness and defence.

Delivered:

Stalled/Watered Down:

Nature Restoration Law — facing significant member state pushback
2035 combustion-engine car ban softened — changed to a 90% CO2 reduction target with e-fuel/biofuel loopholes
The "Industrial Accelerator Act" (originally "Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act") had the word "decarbonisation" dropped from its title by von der Leyen in Sept 2025 amid internal disputes
Agricultural emissions — CAP reforms watered down after farmer protests

13 legislative proposals covering:

Tightened EU ETS (more ambitious cap, faster reduction)
Parallel ETS for buildings and transport (ETS2) — launched 2024, politically contentious
CBAM — transitional phase active, full implementation from 2026
2035 ICE phase-out — amended to 90% CO2 reduction target
Higher renewables and energy efficiency targets
Social Climate Fund — to cushion impact of carbon pricing on vulnerable households

CBAM implementation snags:

Carbon price trajectory: Fell from peaks of ~€100/t in early 2023 to around €65-75/t through 2024-2025 due to reduced industrial output and faster renewables deployment
Market Stability Reserve continues absorbing surplus allowances
ETS2 (buildings/transport) launched in 2024 — has been highly politically contentious, with member states fearing public backlash over heating costs
EU's carbon price is still the world's highest, but the gap with other jurisdictions is narrowing

Target: 42.5% renewables share of energy consumption by 2030 (aspiration for 45%)
Legally binding since late 2023
EU's solar/wind growth pushed fossil-fuel power to its lowest level in 40 years (Jan 2025)
Solar capacity additions hit records in 2024-25
Wind: offshore wind expansion accelerating but facing permitting bottlenecks and supply chain constraints

Russian pipeline gas imports fell from ~40% of EU gas in 2021 to under 8% by 2023
LNG imports from US and Norway soared
European renewable capacity additions hit records
New LNG terminals built at pace in Germany, Netherlands, Greece

EU became the world's largest LNG importer in 2023
Critics warn of LNG lock-in and stranded assets — long-term contracts lock Europe into fossil fuel infrastructure
Germany's new LNG terminals are controversial with climate groups

The US-Israeli attack on Iran triggered a second energy shock
Cost the EU an additional €24bn for oil/gas imports
Oil spiked over $100/barrel
Commission launched "AccelerateEU" (23 April 2026) — 44 actions including:
- Electrification target
- Gas storage fill requirements
- Tax changes favouring electricity over gas
- Accelerated renewable permitting

Adopted 2024
Targets: 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling of strategic raw materials within EU
Diversification away from Chinese dominance in rare earths, lithium, cobalt
Strategic partnerships with resource-rich countries (Chile, Australia, Namibia)

Proposed "Made in Europe" procurement rules for low-carbon steel, cement, and EV parts
Controversial — some environmentalists call it "climate law in disguise", others fear climate focus being sidelined for competitiveness
Von der Leyen dropped "decarbonisation" from the title
Germany opposed restrictive "made in Europe" rules

Major protests across France, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Belgium in 2023-24
Directed against: fertiliser restrictions, CAP reforms, nitrogen rules, pesticide bans
Commission watered down several agricultural proposals
The far right successfully channelled this anger — Politico: "Dutch farmers back Wilders as centrist nightmares come true"

Germany's CDU won Feb 2025 election — climate ambition downgraded relative to competitiveness
France's RN expected to do well in 2027 presidential race
European Parliament shifted right in 2024 elections — Greens lost seats
AfD/RN climate denialism: AfD platform includes leaving EU climate policy, reopening coal plants

Commission proposed 90% net reduction by 2040 (July 2025 amendment to Climate Law)
Key controversy: includes international carbon credits from 2036, wider use of carbon removals in EU ETS
Climate NGOs called it a "watered down" target
EU missed the Feb 2025 UN deadline for new NDCs — now faces Sept 2026 deadline
Member states (led by Germany, Poland, Italy) pushed for flexibilities

EVs outsold petrol cars in EU for the first time in December 2025 (217,898 EVs vs 216,492 petrol, up 51% YoY)
Full-year 2025: 17.4% market share (up from 13.6% in 2024)
Chinese EV maker BYD tripled market share to 1.9%
Tesla's market share dropped 37.9% in 2025 amid Musk controversy
Automotive sector pushed back hard — Stellantis claimed "no natural demand" for EVs
EU responded by softening the 2035 ban to a 90% CO2 target with e-fuel loopholes

Heat pump sales in Europe fell in 2024 after a boom in 2022-2023
Partly due to policy uncertainty in Germany and reduced gas/electricity price differential
AccelerateEU plan includes tax changes to favour electricity over gas

Carbon Brief — EU solar/wind pushed fossil fuel to lowest level in 40 years (Jan 2025)
Carbon Brief — EU 2040 target: 90% net reduction proposed (July 2025)
Carbon Brief — Nature Restoration Law pushback
Politico Europe — "Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act" renamed (Sept 2025)
Politico Europe — "AccelerateEU: 44 actions for second energy crisis" (Apr 2026)
Politico Europe — "Commission's stealth migration drop" — broader policy shift context
BBC News — Farmer protests across Europe (2024)
BBC News — Germany's Zeitenwende climate implications
Wikipedia — Fit for 55, RED III, NZIA, CRMA, EU ETS Phase 4
European Commission — REPowerEU outcomes report
Politico Europe — "Dutch farmers back Wilders as centrist nightmares come true" (Feb 2024)