EU Expansion

Last updated: 25 May 2026

Overview

The Ukraine war has fundamentally accelerated EU enlargement — unprecedented speed from application (Feb 2022) to candidate negotiations (June 2024) for Ukraine and Moldova. But the process remains uneven, with the Western Balkans stalled in decade-long negotiations and Georgia frozen. Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the most significant political development for enlargement — removing the single biggest obstacle.

Ukraine — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating

Applied: 28 Feb 2022 (4 days after Russian invasion)
Candidate status granted: 23 June 2022
Negotiations opened: 25 June 2024 (simultaneously with Moldova)
Bilateral screening completed: 30 Sept 2025
Chapters opened: 0 of 33

What's blocked:

Hungary under Orbán blocked opening of negotiations clusters through 2025 — argued integrating "a country at war"
Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the breakthrough: Kyiv and Budapest launched talks on Hungarian minority rights (18 May 2026) — positive signal for unblocking
Slovakia (Fico) threatened to withdraw support over Druzhba oil pipeline dispute
Germany (Merz) cast doubt on Ukraine joining by 2034 (Jan 2026 statement)
EU Ambassador Katarína Mathernová stated (22 May 2026) that Orbán's fall created "fresh momentum" — but that "others were hiding behind him" and are now exposed

Informal progress:

Ukraine received Draft Common Positions on clusters 1, 2, and 6 on 11 Dec 2025 — first time an official negotiating position was revealed to a candidate pre-opening
Ukraine has pushed for phased integration into the Single Market before full membership

Moldova — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating

Applied: 3 March 2022
Candidate status granted: 23 June 2022
Negotiations opened: 25 June 2024
Screening completed: 22 Sept 2025
Chapters opened: 0 of 33

Key developments:

Target date of 2028 for EU accession — the most ambitious timeline of any candidate
Oct 2024 constitutional referendum: narrowly voted to amend constitution to include EU membership aim
Pro-European PAS party retained power in Sept 2025 parliamentary elections
Receiving €1.9 billion Growth Plan (2025-2027)
Informal opening of all chapters began 17 March 2026 — to bypass Hungary's veto (before Orbán's fall)
Challenge: European Commission expressed concern over dismissal of National Bank governor Octavian Armașu as a risk to governance

Georgia — Status: Frozen

Status: Candidate status granted Dec 2023, but accession process is effectively frozen / suspended

Key events:

"Foreign agents" law (passed by Georgian Dream 2024) — requiring NGOs and media to register as receiving foreign funding
EU de facto halted Georgia's accession process on 9 July 2024
EU halted all financial aid to the Georgian government (redirected to civil society) from 27 June 2024
2024 parliamentary elections disputed — European Parliament rejected results, called for re-run
28 Nov 2024: PM Kobakhidze announced Georgia suspended EU accession negotiations until end of 2028
Massive protests followed. Constitutional crisis: disputed presidential inauguration
No screening has taken place. No chapters opened or closed.

Western Balkans

Montenegro — Most Advanced Candidate

Chapters opened: 33/33 (100%) ✅
Chapters provisionally closed: 14/33 (42.4%)
Earliest possible entry: 2028
Key development (22 Apr 2026): EU ambassadors approved creation of ad hoc working group for drafting Montenegro's accession treaty — a major milestone
Commissioner Marta Kos stated Montenegro could complete negotiations by 2028
19 chapters remain to be closed
Only candidate to have met interim benchmarks for Chapters 23 & 24 (judiciary, fundamental rights)
Public support for EU membership: ~81%

Serbia — Negotiating Since 2014

Chapters opened: 22/34 (64.7%)
Chapters closed: 2/34 (5.9%)
Earliest possible entry: 2029-2030
No progress since December 2021 — negotiations stalled
Main blocks: Kosovo recognition, democratic backsliding, failure to align with EU sanctions on Russia, media freedom
Benchmarks met for opening 3 more chapters (10, 16, 19) in Dec 2024 but postponed due to conditionality
21 May 2026: Serbia's parliament head Ana Brnabić accused EU of "double standards" — arguing Ukraine was fast-tracked while Serbia's decade-old talks stall

Albania — Negotiating Since July 2022

Chapters opened: 0/33 (screening completed Nov 2023)
First chapters opened in Oct 2024
Commissioner Kos suggested 2029 as possible accession date
Main challenge: rule of law, organised crime, corruption

North Macedonia — Negotiating Since July 2022

Chapters opened: 0/33 (screening completed Dec 2023)
Key block: Opening of Fundamentals cluster conditional on constitutional amendment recognising Bulgarian minority — Bulgarian veto
No progress on this amendment as of May 2026
Name dispute (with Greece) resolved 2018-19 but bilateral issues continue to block

Bosnia and Herzegovina — Candidate (Not Yet Negotiating)

Candidate status granted Dec 2022
March 2024: European Council granted conditional approval for opening negotiations
But negotiations framework has NOT been adopted
Blocks: Republika Srpska (Milorad Dodik) has obstructed EU path — in Jan 2025 stated he would "seriously reconsider" EU path and prefers secession
Four cantons blocked Growth Plan reform package in July 2024
Still needs: approved reform package, national programme for EU law adoption, chief negotiator appointment

Kosovo — Applicant / Potential Candidate

Not yet candidate status
Blocked by: Five EU member states (Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia) do not recognise Kosovo's independence
No progress expected until recognition issue resolved
EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue ongoing but stalled

Enlargement Reform Debates

Orbán's Fall (April 2026) — Game Changer

The single biggest political shift in EU enlargement
Péter Magyar's win removed Hungary's chief obstructionist
EU Ambassador Mathernová (22 May 2026): others were "hiding behind him" and are now exposed
EU sanctions on Israeli settlers previously blocked by Orbán now proceeding
Frozen EU funds for Hungary likely to be unblocked under Magyar

Gradual Integration / "Phasing-In"

New enlargement methodology (2020) divides 35 chapters into 6 clusters — Fundamentals opened first and closed last
Commission exploring "gradual integration" — allowing candidates partial access to EU policies (Single Market areas, research programmes) before full membership
Ukraine pushing hardest for this approach

Internal EU Reform First?

Debate between "enlarge before reforming" vs "reform institutions before enlarging"
A larger EU would require changes to voting weights (QMV), budget contributions, structural funds allocation
The 2030 target (Charles Michel at Bled Forum) seen as aspirational for the first ready candidates

Serbia's "Double Standards" Complaint

Brnabić's accusation reflects growing Serbian frustration
Ukraine's fast-track (application to negotiations in <2.5 years) compared to Western Balkans' decade+
Serbia argues it is being punished for its friendly stance toward Russia rather than actual backsliding

Sources

European Commission — Enlargement reports
Wikipedia — Accession of Ukraine to the European Union
Wikipedia — Accession of Moldova to the European Union
Wikipedia — Accession of Georgia to the European Union
Wikipedia — Accession of Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo
Politico Europe — "Orbán's exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe" (Apr 2026)
Politico Europe — "Hungary's Magyar meets von der Leyen" (Apr 2026)
Politico Europe — EU Ambassador Mathernová on Ukraine momentum (22 May 2026)
Politico Europe — "Serbia's parliament head condemns EU double standards" (21 May 2026)
BBC News — "Montenegro: EU ambassadors approve working group for accession treaty" (22 Apr 2026)