EU Expansion

EU Expansion

Last updated: 25 May 2026

Overview

The Ukraine war has fundamentally accelerated EU enlargement — unprecedented speed from application (Feb 2022) to candidate negotiations (June 2024) for Ukraine and Moldova. But the process remains uneven, with the Western Balkans stalled in decade-long negotiations and Georgia frozen. Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the most significant political development for enlargement — removing the single biggest obstacle.

Ukraine — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating

• Applied: 28 Feb 2022 (4 days after Russian invasion)
• Candidate status granted: 23 June 2022
• Negotiations opened: 25 June 2024 (simultaneously with Moldova)
• Bilateral screening completed: 30 Sept 2025
• Chapters opened: 0 of 33

What's blocked:

• Hungary under Orbán blocked opening of negotiations clusters through 2025 — argued integrating "a country at war"
• Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the breakthrough: Kyiv and Budapest launched talks on Hungarian minority rights (18 May 2026) — positive signal for unblocking
• Slovakia (Fico) threatened to withdraw support over Druzhba oil pipeline dispute
• Germany (Merz) cast doubt on Ukraine joining by 2034 (Jan 2026 statement)
• EU Ambassador Katarína Mathernová stated (22 May 2026) that Orbán's fall created "fresh momentum" — but that "others were hiding behind him" and are now exposed

Informal progress:

• Ukraine received Draft Common Positions on clusters 1, 2, and 6 on 11 Dec 2025 — first time an official negotiating position was revealed to a candidate pre-opening
• Ukraine has pushed for phased integration into the Single Market before full membership

Moldova — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating

• Applied: 3 March 2022
• Candidate status granted: 23 June 2022
• Negotiations opened: 25 June 2024
• Screening completed: 22 Sept 2025
• Chapters opened: 0 of 33

Key developments:

• Target date of 2028 for EU accession — the most ambitious timeline of any candidate
• Oct 2024 constitutional referendum: narrowly voted to amend constitution to include EU membership aim
• Pro-European PAS party retained power in Sept 2025 parliamentary elections
• Receiving €1.9 billion Growth Plan (2025-2027)
• Informal opening of all chapters began 17 March 2026 — to bypass Hungary's veto (before Orbán's fall)
• Challenge: European Commission expressed concern over dismissal of National Bank governor Octavian Armașu as a risk to governance

Georgia — Status: Frozen

Status: Candidate status granted Dec 2023, but accession process is effectively frozen / suspended

Key events:

• "Foreign agents" law (passed by Georgian Dream 2024) — requiring NGOs and media to register as receiving foreign funding
• EU de facto halted Georgia's accession process on 9 July 2024
• EU halted all financial aid to the Georgian government (redirected to civil society) from 27 June 2024
• 2024 parliamentary elections disputed — European Parliament rejected results, called for re-run
• 28 Nov 2024: PM Kobakhidze announced Georgia suspended EU accession negotiations until end of 2028
• Massive protests followed. Constitutional crisis: disputed presidential inauguration
• No screening has taken place. No chapters opened or closed.

Western Balkans

Montenegro — Most Advanced Candidate

• Chapters opened: 33/33 (100%) ✅
• Chapters provisionally closed: 14/33 (42.4%)
• Earliest possible entry: 2028
• Key development (22 Apr 2026): EU ambassadors approved creation of ad hoc working group for drafting Montenegro's accession treaty — a major milestone
• Commissioner Marta Kos stated Montenegro could complete negotiations by 2028
• 19 chapters remain to be closed
• Only candidate to have met interim benchmarks for Chapters 23 & 24 (judiciary, fundamental rights)
• Public support for EU membership: ~81%

Serbia — Negotiating Since 2014

• Chapters opened: 22/34 (64.7%)
• Chapters closed: 2/34 (5.9%)
• Earliest possible entry: 2029-2030
• No progress since December 2021 — negotiations stalled
• Main blocks: Kosovo recognition, democratic backsliding, failure to align with EU sanctions on Russia, media freedom
• Benchmarks met for opening 3 more chapters (10, 16, 19) in Dec 2024 but postponed due to conditionality
• 21 May 2026: Serbia's parliament head Ana Brnabić accused EU of "double standards" — arguing Ukraine was fast-tracked while Serbia's decade-old talks stall

Albania — Negotiating Since July 2022

• Chapters opened: 0/33 (screening completed Nov 2023)
• First chapters opened in Oct 2024
• Commissioner Kos suggested 2029 as possible accession date
• Main challenge: rule of law, organised crime, corruption

North Macedonia — Negotiating Since July 2022

• Chapters opened: 0/33 (screening completed Dec 2023)
• Key block: Opening of Fundamentals cluster conditional on constitutional amendment recognising Bulgarian minority — Bulgarian veto
• No progress on this amendment as of May 2026
• Name dispute (with Greece) resolved 2018-19 but bilateral issues continue to block

Bosnia and Herzegovina — Candidate (Not Yet Negotiating)

• Candidate status granted Dec 2022
• March 2024: European Council granted conditional approval for opening negotiations
• But negotiations framework has NOT been adopted
• Blocks: Republika Srpska (Milorad Dodik) has obstructed EU path — in Jan 2025 stated he would "seriously reconsider" EU path and prefers secession
• Four cantons blocked Growth Plan reform package in July 2024
• Still needs: approved reform package, national programme for EU law adoption, chief negotiator appointment

Kosovo — Applicant / Potential Candidate

• Not yet candidate status
• Blocked by: Five EU member states (Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia) do not recognise Kosovo's independence
• No progress expected until recognition issue resolved
• EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue ongoing but stalled

Enlargement Reform Debates

Orbán's Fall (April 2026) — Game Changer

• The single biggest political shift in EU enlargement
• Péter Magyar's win removed Hungary's chief obstructionist
• EU Ambassador Mathernová (22 May 2026): others were "hiding behind him" and are now exposed
• EU sanctions on Israeli settlers previously blocked by Orbán now proceeding
• Frozen EU funds for Hungary likely to be unblocked under Magyar

Gradual Integration / "Phasing-In"

• New enlargement methodology (2020) divides 35 chapters into 6 clusters — Fundamentals opened first and closed last
• Commission exploring "gradual integration" — allowing candidates partial access to EU policies (Single Market areas, research programmes) before full membership
• Ukraine pushing hardest for this approach

Internal EU Reform First?

• Debate between "enlarge before reforming" vs "reform institutions before enlarging"
• A larger EU would require changes to voting weights (QMV), budget contributions, structural funds allocation
• The 2030 target (Charles Michel at Bled Forum) seen as aspirational for the first ready candidates

Serbia's "Double Standards" Complaint

• Brnabić's accusation reflects growing Serbian frustration
• Ukraine's fast-track (application to negotiations in <2.5 years) compared to Western Balkans' decade+
• Serbia argues it is being punished for its friendly stance toward Russia rather than actual backsliding

Sources

• European Commission — Enlargement reports
• Wikipedia — Accession of Ukraine to the European Union
• Wikipedia — Accession of Moldova to the European Union
• Wikipedia — Accession of Georgia to the European Union
• Wikipedia — Accession of Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo
• Politico Europe — "Orbán's exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe" (Apr 2026)
• Politico Europe — "Hungary's Magyar meets von der Leyen" (Apr 2026)
• Politico Europe — EU Ambassador Mathernová on Ukraine momentum (22 May 2026)
• Politico Europe — "Serbia's parliament head condemns EU double standards" (21 May 2026)
• BBC News — "Montenegro: EU ambassadors approve working group for accession treaty" (22 Apr 2026)