# EU Expansion # EU Expansion **Last updated:** 25 May 2026 --- ## Overview The Ukraine war has fundamentally accelerated EU enlargement — unprecedented speed from application (Feb 2022) to candidate negotiations (June 2024) for Ukraine and Moldova. But the process remains uneven, with the Western Balkans stalled in decade-long negotiations and Georgia frozen. Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the most significant political development for enlargement — removing the single biggest obstacle. --- ## Ukraine — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating - **Applied:** 28 Feb 2022 (4 days after Russian invasion) - **Candidate status granted:** 23 June 2022 - **Negotiations opened:** 25 June 2024 (simultaneously with Moldova) - **Bilateral screening completed:** 30 Sept 2025 - **Chapters opened:** 0 of 33 **What's blocked:** - **Hungary** under Orbán blocked opening of negotiations clusters through 2025 — argued integrating "a country at war" - Orbán's fall (Apr 2026) is the breakthrough: **Kyiv and Budapest launched talks on Hungarian minority rights** (18 May 2026) — positive signal for unblocking - **Slovakia (Fico)** threatened to withdraw support over Druzhba oil pipeline dispute - **Germany (Merz)** cast doubt on Ukraine joining by 2034 (Jan 2026 statement) - EU Ambassador Katarína Mathernová stated (22 May 2026) that Orbán's fall created "fresh momentum" — but that "others were hiding behind him" and are now exposed **Informal progress:** - Ukraine received **Draft Common Positions on clusters 1, 2, and 6** on 11 Dec 2025 — first time an official negotiating position was revealed to a candidate pre-opening - Ukraine has pushed for phased integration into the Single Market before full membership --- ## Moldova — Accession Status: Candidate Negotiating - **Applied:** 3 March 2022 - **Candidate status granted:** 23 June 2022 - **Negotiations opened:** 25 June 2024 - **Screening completed:** 22 Sept 2025 - **Chapters opened:** 0 of 33 **Key developments:** - Target date of **2028** for EU accession — the most ambitious timeline of any candidate - Oct 2024 constitutional referendum: narrowly voted to amend constitution to include EU membership aim - Pro-European PAS party retained power in Sept 2025 parliamentary elections - Receiving €1.9 billion Growth Plan (2025-2027) - **Informal opening of all chapters began 17 March 2026** — to bypass Hungary's veto (before Orbán's fall) - **Challenge:** European Commission expressed concern over dismissal of National Bank governor Octavian Armașu as a risk to governance --- ## Georgia — Status: Frozen **Status:** Candidate status granted Dec 2023, but **accession process is effectively frozen / suspended** **Key events:** - "Foreign agents" law (passed by Georgian Dream 2024) — requiring NGOs and media to register as receiving foreign funding - EU **de facto halted** Georgia's accession process on 9 July 2024 - EU halted all financial aid to the Georgian government (redirected to civil society) from 27 June 2024 - 2024 parliamentary elections disputed — European Parliament rejected results, called for re-run - **28 Nov 2024:** PM Kobakhidze announced Georgia **suspended EU accession negotiations until end of 2028** - Massive protests followed. Constitutional crisis: disputed presidential inauguration - **No screening has taken place. No chapters opened or closed.** --- ## Western Balkans ### Montenegro — Most Advanced Candidate - **Chapters opened:** 33/33 (100%) ✅ - **Chapters provisionally closed:** 14/33 (42.4%) - **Earliest possible entry:** 2028 - **Key development (22 Apr 2026):** EU ambassadors approved creation of ad hoc working group for drafting Montenegro's accession treaty — a major milestone - Commissioner Marta Kos stated Montenegro could complete negotiations by 2028 - 19 chapters remain to be closed - Only candidate to have met interim benchmarks for Chapters 23 & 24 (judiciary, fundamental rights) - Public support for EU membership: ~81% ### Serbia — Negotiating Since 2014 - **Chapters opened:** 22/34 (64.7%) - **Chapters closed:** 2/34 (5.9%) - **Earliest possible entry:** 2029-2030 - **No progress since December 2021** — negotiations stalled - **Main blocks:** Kosovo recognition, democratic backsliding, failure to align with EU sanctions on Russia, media freedom - Benchmarks met for opening 3 more chapters (10, 16, 19) in Dec 2024 but **postponed** due to conditionality - **21 May 2026:** Serbia's parliament head Ana Brnabić accused EU of "double standards" — arguing Ukraine was fast-tracked while Serbia's decade-old talks stall ### Albania — Negotiating Since July 2022 - **Chapters opened:** 0/33 (screening completed Nov 2023) - First chapters opened in Oct 2024 - Commissioner Kos suggested 2029 as possible accession date - Main challenge: rule of law, organised crime, corruption ### North Macedonia — Negotiating Since July 2022 - **Chapters opened:** 0/33 (screening completed Dec 2023) - **Key block:** Opening of Fundamentals cluster conditional on constitutional amendment recognising **Bulgarian minority** — Bulgarian veto - No progress on this amendment as of May 2026 - Name dispute (with Greece) resolved 2018-19 but bilateral issues continue to block ### Bosnia and Herzegovina — Candidate (Not Yet Negotiating) - Candidate status granted Dec 2022 - March 2024: European Council granted **conditional approval** for opening negotiations - But negotiations framework **has NOT been adopted** - **Blocks:** Republika Srpska (Milorad Dodik) has obstructed EU path — in Jan 2025 stated he would "seriously reconsider" EU path and prefers secession - Four cantons blocked Growth Plan reform package in July 2024 - Still needs: approved reform package, national programme for EU law adoption, chief negotiator appointment ### Kosovo — Applicant / Potential Candidate - **Not yet candidate status** - **Blocked by:** Five EU member states (Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia) do not recognise Kosovo's independence - No progress expected until recognition issue resolved - EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina dialogue ongoing but stalled --- ## Enlargement Reform Debates ### Orbán's Fall (April 2026) — Game Changer - The single biggest political shift in EU enlargement - Péter Magyar's win removed Hungary's chief obstructionist - EU Ambassador Mathernová (22 May 2026): others were "hiding behind him" and are now exposed - EU sanctions on Israeli settlers previously blocked by Orbán now proceeding - Frozen EU funds for Hungary likely to be unblocked under Magyar ### Gradual Integration / "Phasing-In" - New enlargement methodology (2020) divides 35 chapters into 6 clusters — Fundamentals opened first and closed last - Commission exploring "gradual integration" — allowing candidates partial access to EU policies (Single Market areas, research programmes) before full membership - Ukraine pushing hardest for this approach ### Internal EU Reform First? - Debate between "enlarge before reforming" vs "reform institutions before enlarging" - A larger EU would require changes to voting weights (QMV), budget contributions, structural funds allocation - The 2030 target (Charles Michel at Bled Forum) seen as aspirational for the first ready candidates ### Serbia's "Double Standards" Complaint - Brnabić's accusation reflects growing Serbian frustration - Ukraine's fast-track (application to negotiations in <2.5 years) compared to Western Balkans' decade+ - Serbia argues it is being punished for its friendly stance toward Russia rather than actual backsliding --- ## Sources - European Commission — Enlargement reports - Wikipedia — Accession of Ukraine to the European Union - Wikipedia — Accession of Moldova to the European Union - Wikipedia — Accession of Georgia to the European Union - Wikipedia — Accession of Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Kosovo - Politico Europe — "Orbán's exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe" (Apr 2026) - Politico Europe — "Hungary's Magyar meets von der Leyen" (Apr 2026) - Politico Europe — EU Ambassador Mathernová on Ukraine momentum (22 May 2026) - Politico Europe — "Serbia's parliament head condemns EU double standards" (21 May 2026) - BBC News — "Montenegro: EU ambassadors approve working group for accession treaty" (22 Apr 2026)