EU Institutions & Governance

EU Institutions & Governance

Last updated: 25 May 2026

European Commission — von der Leyen II (2024-2029)

Ursula von der Leyen secured a second term as Commission President after the 2024 European Parliament elections, backed by EPP, S&D, and Renew. Her second-term priorities are built around the EU Strategic Agenda 2024-2029, focusing on security, competitiveness, and climate transition — but with the political centre of gravity shifted rightwards.

Key new commissioners and portfolio shifts

Post-2024 election reshuffle gave more influence to EPP-aligned commissioners. Key portfolios:

• Competitiveness and industrial policy — elevated as the dominant agenda, reflecting pressure from member states to prioritise economic growth over regulation
• Defence and security — a new dedicated portfolio reflecting the post-Ukraine war, post-Trump shift
• Migration and border management — hardened line, reflecting the Pact on Migration's adoption and the broader European rightward shift

Political direction

• Von der Leyen has shifted the Commission steadily rightward on migration and competitiveness
• "Stealth migration drop" — Politico reported (Nov 2025) that the Commission pushed restrictive measures through without full parliamentary scrutiny
• The Green Deal remains formally intact but has been deprioritised relative to industrial competitiveness
• The 2040 climate target (90% net reduction) was proposed July 2025 but softened by member state pushback

European Parliament — 2024-2029 Term

Composition after June 2024 elections:

• EPP (centre-right): largest group ~185 seats
• S&D (social democrats): second ~135 seats
• Renew Europe (liberals): third ~80 seats
• Patriots for Europe (far right): ~84 seats — led by Jordan Bardella (RN)
• ECR (hard right): ~70 seats — led by Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia
• Greens/EFA: declined to ~50 seats
• The Left: ~35 seats
• ESN (far right, including AfD): ~25 seats

The pro-EU coalition (EPP+S&D+Renew) still holds a majority but is narrower than in 2019-2024. The far right now controls roughly 25-28% of seats across three groups (PfE, ECR, ESN). This has shifted the political centre of gravity — the EPP increasingly votes with the right on migration and competitiveness issues.

European Council — Key Dynamics

• Orbán's fall (April 2026) is the single biggest shift — Hungary under Péter Magyar is now pro-EU, pro-rule of law. This removes the most consistent veto player on Ukraine aid, sanctions, and enlargement.
• Macron is serving out his final year (lame duck, cannot run again 2027)
• Scholz replaced by Friedrich Merz (CDU) after Germany's Feb 2025 election — more Atlanticist on defence, more conservative on migration
• Meloni remains in power but weakened by March 2026 constitutional referendum defeat
• Tusk (Poland) back at the table after PiS lost power — driving rule of law restoration and EU fund unlocking
• Rutte is now NATO Secretary-General (since Oct 2024) — replaced by Dick Schoof then Rob Jetten in the Netherlands

Qualified Majority Voting Reform

The debate around moving foreign policy and taxation to QMV (away from national veto) has intensified:

• Enlargement reform: Phased accession and QMV on enlargement decisions being discussed as necessary for a 35+ member EU
• Sanctions: Orbán's serial vetoes on Russia sanctions before his fall strengthened the case for QMV
• Taxation: Still unanimous — no progress on moving to QMV
• Foreign policy: Some member states (Germany, France, Benelux) pushing for QMV on foreign policy decisions; others (smaller states) resisting

Rule of Law — Article 7 and Member States

Hungary (Post-Orbán)

The biggest rule of law story of 2026. Péter Magyar's Tisza Party won a landslide in the April 2026 election, ending 16 years of Fidesz rule. Key developments:

• EU frozen funds now likely to be unblocked — Magyar met von der Leyen in April 2026 to discuss
• Article 7 proceedings likely to be wound down
• The European Parliament's rule of law rapporteur has already signalled a reset in relations

Poland (Under Tusk)

• Tusk's government has been systematically reversing PiS's judicial reforms
• EU funds (€137 billion in RRF and cohesion) were unblocked in early 2024 after milestones were met
• However, PiS-allied President Duda (until Aug 2025) used veto powers to block some reforms — and PiS-aligned Karol Nawrocki won the 2025 presidential election, giving PiS-aligned veto power until 2030
• Next PiS trial: Former Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro is reportedly a fugitive in the US facing 26 charges

Slovakia (Under Fico)

• Fico's third-term government is moving to dismantle rule of law protections
• Whistleblower protections under threat (blocked by courts Dec 2025)
• Party of European Socialists permanently expelled Smer for its far-right turn (Sept 2025)
• Pro-Russia, anti-Ukraine stance isolates Slovakia within the EU

Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 — Priorities

1. A prosperous and competitive Europe — industrial policy, single market deepening, regulatory simplification
2. A green and just transition — Green Deal, REPowerEU, Fit for 55 delivery
3. A secure Europe — defence integration, security partnerships, border management
4. A Europe that protects democracy — rule of law, media freedom, anti-disinformation
5. A stronger Europe in the world — enlargement, neighbourhood policy, global partnerships

Next MFF Negotiations (2028-2034)

• The next Multiannual Financial Framework will be the first negotiated with a potential EU of 30+ members
• Key debates: defence spending (new European Defence Fund expected to be substantially larger), agricultural subsidies (CAP reform inevitable with Ukrainian accession reducing budget for existing members), cohesion policy reform
• Net contributor countries (Germany, Netherlands, Sweden) pushing for budget discipline
• EU's own resources debate continues — digital levy, CBAM revenues, ETS expansion as potential new EU-level revenues

Sources

• Politico Europe — "The incredible shrinking German chancellor" (May 2026)
• Politico Europe — "Commission's stealth migration drop hits Parliament" (Nov 2025)
• BBC News — "Hungary's new PM Magyar sworn in after landslide victory over Orbán" (Apr 2026)
• BBC News — "Poland's PiS opposition sinks deeper into financial trouble" (Nov 2024)
• Politico Europe — "Orbán's exit leaves Israel exposed in Europe" (Apr 2026)
• Politico Europe — "Hungary's Magyar meets von der Leyen to game-plan unlocking frozen EU funds" (Apr 2026)
• European Commission — Strategic Agenda 2024-2029
• Wikipedia — Von der Leyen Commission II
• Wikipedia — 2024 European Parliament election
• Politico Europe — "Slovak court stalls Fico's drive to scrap whistleblower protections" (Dec 2025)