Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker

Last updated: 27 May 2026 — no major new independence developments since 26 May. Senedd is in Whitsun recess.

Context

Welsh independence (annibyniaeth i Gymru) has become a live political issue since Plaid Cymru won the most seats in the May 2026 Senedd election and formed a minority government under First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth. Plaid is the first non-Labour party to lead Wales.

While the party has ruled out a referendum in this Senedd term, it has committed to "making the case" for independence through government, including a commissioned White Paper.

Latest Polling

Poll	Date	Yes	No	Don't Know	Notes
YouGov	Jan 2026	26%	54%	20%	1,220 adults; only 1% listed independence as top UK Govt priority
YouGov/BBC	~Apr 2026	32%	52%	16%	Only 56% of Plaid voters backed independence
Redfield & Wilton / YesCymru	Mar-Apr 2025	35%	50%	14%	41% Yes excl. DKs; "milestone" — 72% of 25-34 year olds backed independence
Redfield & Wilton	Jul 2023	32%	58%	10%	53% of 18-24 year olds backed Yes

Trend: Support has been on a slow upward trajectory, with the Redfield & Wilton/YesCymru poll (35%, 41% excl. DKs) described as a "milestone moment" by YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths. The most significant shift is generational — 72% of 25-34 year olds support independence.

Party Positions

Party	Position	Detail
Plaid Cymru	✅ For	"Our nation is on a journey to independence." No referendum this term. Will request devolution of indyref power. £500k White Paper commissioned.
Welsh Labour	❌ Against	"A strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom." Wants Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution.
Welsh Conservatives	❌ Against	Calls independence a "fantasy" — says it'd cost billions, jeopardise pensions, draw "a slate curtain across the Welsh border."
Reform UK	❌ Against	Welsh leader Dan Thomas: "Rhun's push for independence will divide Wales." Called White Paper "a distraction."
Welsh Liberal Democrats	❌ Against	Second priority in manifesto: "Stop independence." Pledged "not a single penny" on independence agenda.
Wales Green Party	✅ For	Leader Anthony Slaughter: "Independence is not just viable but essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales."

Plaid Cymru Government's Position

Rhun ap Iorwerth became First Minister on 12 May 2026 with support from the two Green MSs (Labour and Lib Dems abstained). Key commitments:

No referendum in this term — ruled out publicly multiple times
"Make the case" — use government to "prove to people it would be possible"
Request devolution of indyref power — formally request Westminster devolve the right to decide on timeline, question and process
White Paper — £500k commission to produce a detailed case for independence
Celtic Alliance — ap Iorwerth has pushed for a Celtic Alliance, declaring "the old union is dead"
Crown Estate campaign (25 May) — Plaid Cymru launched a public messaging campaign demanding control over the Crown Estate, arguing Wales' natural resources should be managed in Wales, not Westminster. This is their first major independence-adjacent public campaign since forming government.
"Wales Must Define Itself" (26 May) — Nation.Cymru opinion piece by Ben Wildsmith analyses Plaid's government and the wider constitutional questions around Welsh national identity post-election

Key Arguments

Economic

Barnett Formula — Yes side argues Wales is underfunded by billions; No side says independence would expose a major fiscal gap
Oil/Energy — Crown Estate revenues from Welsh waters are a major flashpoint; YesCymru campaigning on resource sovereignty
EU Membership — Plaid uses post-Brexit arguments; advocates argue Wales could rejoin the EU as an independent nation
Cost of independence — Conservatives cite "billions to our economy"; Plaid disputes these figures

Cultural

Welsh language — central to national identity; language rights seen as incomplete within the UK
Generational shift — 72% of 25-34 year olds backing independence suggests rising long-term support

Constitutional

Federalism vs Independence — Labour pushes strengthening devolution; Plaid says the current system is "unsustainable"
Crown Estate — control over Welsh waters and energy resources a key sovereignty issue

Independence Movement

YesCymru — main grassroots campaign group; hold annual March for Independence events
Indy Curiad (Independence Beat) — cultural/arts wing of the movement
AUOB Cymru — organises marches (Barry Apr 2025, Apr 2026; Cardiff, Bangor, Wrexham, Carmarthen, Swansea)
Largest recent march: ~10,000 in Cardiff (2022)

Comparison to Scotland

Metric	Wales	Scotland
Independence support	26-35%	~45-50%
Young people support	72% of 25-34 yr olds	Similar age skew
Pro-indy in government	Yes (Plaid Cymru, minority)	Yes (SNP since 2007)
Indyref commitment	No this term	Ongoing push for indyref2
Party dominance	Plaid ~30-32% vote share	SNP ~45-50% vote share

Plaid is explicitly following the SNP model: get into power → make the case → secure a referendum. However, Rhun has been more cautious, ruling out a referendum this term. The SNP's difficulties (internal divisions, declining polls) have been noted by Welsh observers.

Twitter/X Discussion

Source: Nitter search, 26 May 2026

No significant discussion found on Nitter/X for this period — section created on setup.

Reddit Discussion

Source: Reddit, 26 May 2026

No significant discussion found yet — section created on setup.

Sources

Nation.Cymru: https://nation.cymru/
Wales Online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/
YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/welsh-independence
Cardiff University Welsh Political Barometer
YesCymru: https://www.yes.cymru/