Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker Last updated: 27 May 2026 — no major new independence developments since 26 May. Senedd is in Whitsun recess. Context Welsh independence (annibyniaeth i Gymru) has become a live political issue since Plaid Cymru won the most seats in the May 2026 Senedd election and formed a minority government under First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth . Plaid is the first non-Labour party to lead Wales. While the party has ruled out a referendum in this Senedd term, it has committed to "making the case" for independence through government, including a commissioned White Paper. Latest Polling Poll Date Yes No Don't Know Notes YouGov Jan 2026 26% 54% 20% 1,220 adults; only 1% listed independence as top UK Govt priority YouGov/BBC ~Apr 2026 32% 52% 16% Only 56% of Plaid voters backed independence Redfield & Wilton / YesCymru Mar-Apr 2025 35% 50% 14% 41% Yes excl. DKs; "milestone" — 72% of 25-34 year olds backed independence Redfield & Wilton Jul 2023 32% 58% 10% 53% of 18-24 year olds backed Yes Trend: Support has been on a slow upward trajectory, with the Redfield & Wilton/YesCymru poll (35%, 41% excl. DKs) described as a "milestone moment" by YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths. The most significant shift is generational — 72% of 25-34 year olds support independence. Party Positions Party Position Detail Plaid Cymru ✅ For "Our nation is on a journey to independence." No referendum this term. Will request devolution of indyref power. £500k White Paper commissioned. Welsh Labour ❌ Against "A strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom." Wants Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution. Welsh Conservatives ❌ Against Calls independence a "fantasy" — says it'd cost billions, jeopardise pensions, draw "a slate curtain across the Welsh border." Reform UK ❌ Against Welsh leader Dan Thomas: "Rhun's push for independence will divide Wales." Called White Paper "a distraction." Welsh Liberal Democrats ❌ Against Second priority in manifesto: "Stop independence." Pledged "not a single penny" on independence agenda. Wales Green Party ✅ For Leader Anthony Slaughter: "Independence is not just viable but essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales." Plaid Cymru Government's Position Rhun ap Iorwerth became First Minister on 12 May 2026 with support from the two Green MSs (Labour and Lib Dems abstained). Key commitments: No referendum in this term — ruled out publicly multiple times "Make the case" — use government to "prove to people it would be possible" Request devolution of indyref power — formally request Westminster devolve the right to decide on timeline, question and process White Paper — £500k commission to produce a detailed case for independence Celtic Alliance — ap Iorwerth has pushed for a Celtic Alliance, declaring "the old union is dead" Crown Estate campaign (25 May) — Plaid Cymru launched a public messaging campaign demanding control over the Crown Estate, arguing Wales' natural resources should be managed in Wales, not Westminster. This is their first major independence-adjacent public campaign since forming government. "Wales Must Define Itself" (26 May) — Nation.Cymru opinion piece by Ben Wildsmith analyses Plaid's government and the wider constitutional questions around Welsh national identity post-election Key Arguments Economic Barnett Formula — Yes side argues Wales is underfunded by billions; No side says independence would expose a major fiscal gap Oil/Energy — Crown Estate revenues from Welsh waters are a major flashpoint; YesCymru campaigning on resource sovereignty EU Membership — Plaid uses post-Brexit arguments; advocates argue Wales could rejoin the EU as an independent nation Cost of independence — Conservatives cite "billions to our economy"; Plaid disputes these figures Cultural Welsh language — central to national identity; language rights seen as incomplete within the UK Generational shift — 72% of 25-34 year olds backing independence suggests rising long-term support Constitutional Federalism vs Independence — Labour pushes strengthening devolution; Plaid says the current system is "unsustainable" Crown Estate — control over Welsh waters and energy resources a key sovereignty issue Independence Movement YesCymru — main grassroots campaign group; hold annual March for Independence events Indy Curiad (Independence Beat) — cultural/arts wing of the movement AUOB Cymru — organises marches (Barry Apr 2025, Apr 2026; Cardiff, Bangor, Wrexham, Carmarthen, Swansea) Largest recent march: ~10,000 in Cardiff (2022) Comparison to Scotland Metric Wales Scotland Independence support 26-35% ~45-50% Young people support 72% of 25-34 yr olds Similar age skew Pro-indy in government Yes (Plaid Cymru, minority) Yes (SNP since 2007) Indyref commitment No this term Ongoing push for indyref2 Party dominance Plaid ~30-32% vote share SNP ~45-50% vote share Plaid is explicitly following the SNP model: get into power → make the case → secure a referendum. However, Rhun has been more cautious, ruling out a referendum this term. The SNP's difficulties (internal divisions, declining polls) have been noted by Welsh observers. Twitter/X Discussion Source: Nitter search, 26 May 2026 No significant discussion found on Nitter/X for this period — section created on setup. Reddit Discussion Source: Reddit, 26 May 2026 No significant discussion found yet — section created on setup. Sources Nation.Cymru: https://nation.cymru/ Wales Online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/ YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/welsh-independence Cardiff University Welsh Political Barometer YesCymru: https://www.yes.cymru/