Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker
Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker
Last updated: 27 May 2026 — no major new independence developments since 26 May. Senedd is in Whitsun recess.
Context
Welsh independence (annibyniaeth i Gymru) has become a live political issue since Plaid Cymru won the most seats in the May 2026 Senedd election and formed a minority government under First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth. Plaid is the first non-Labour party to lead Wales.
While the party has ruled out a referendum in this Senedd term, it has committed to "making the case" for independence through government, including a commissioned White Paper.
Latest Polling
| Poll | Date | Yes | No | Don't Know | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | Jan 2026 | 26% | 54% | 20% | 1,220 adults; only 1% listed independence as top UK Govt priority |
| YouGov/BBC | ~Apr 2026 | 32% | 52% | 16% | Only 56% of Plaid voters backed independence |
| Redfield & Wilton / YesCymru | Mar-Apr 2025 | 35% | 50% | 14% | 41% Yes excl. DKs; "milestone" — 72% of 25-34 year olds backed independence |
| Redfield & Wilton | Jul 2023 | 32% | 58% | 10% | 53% of 18-24 year olds backed Yes |
Trend: Support has been on a slow upward trajectory, with the Redfield & Wilton/YesCymru poll (35%, 41% excl. DKs) described as a "milestone moment" by YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths. The most significant shift is generational — 72% of 25-34 year olds support independence.
Party Positions
| Party | Position | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Plaid Cymru | ✅ For | "Our nation is on a journey to independence." No referendum this term. Will request devolution of indyref power. £500k White Paper commissioned. |
| Welsh Labour | ❌ Against | "A strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom." Wants Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution. |
| Welsh Conservatives | ❌ Against | Calls independence a "fantasy" — says it'd cost billions, jeopardise pensions, draw "a slate curtain across the Welsh border." |
| Reform UK | ❌ Against | Welsh leader Dan Thomas: "Rhun's push for independence will divide Wales." Called White Paper "a distraction." |
| Welsh Liberal Democrats | ❌ Against | Second priority in manifesto: "Stop independence." Pledged "not a single penny" on independence agenda. |
| Wales Green Party | ✅ For | Leader Anthony Slaughter: "Independence is not just viable but essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales." |
Plaid Cymru Government's Position
Rhun ap Iorwerth became First Minister on 12 May 2026 with support from the two Green MSs (Labour and Lib Dems abstained). Key commitments:
- No referendum in this term — ruled out publicly multiple times
- "Make the case" — use government to "prove to people it would be possible"
- Request devolution of indyref power — formally request Westminster devolve the right to decide on timeline, question and process
- White Paper — £500k commission to produce a detailed case for independence
- Celtic Alliance — ap Iorwerth has pushed for a Celtic Alliance, declaring "the old union is dead"
- Crown Estate campaign (25 May) — Plaid Cymru launched a public messaging campaign demanding control over the Crown Estate, arguing Wales' natural resources should be managed in Wales, not Westminster. This is their first major independence-adjacent public campaign since forming government.
- "Wales Must Define Itself" (26 May) — Nation.Cymru opinion piece by Ben Wildsmith analyses Plaid's government and the wider constitutional questions around Welsh national identity post-election
Key Arguments
Economic
- Barnett Formula — Yes side argues Wales is underfunded by billions; No side says independence would expose a major fiscal gap
- Oil/Energy — Crown Estate revenues from Welsh waters are a major flashpoint; YesCymru campaigning on resource sovereignty
- EU Membership — Plaid uses post-Brexit arguments; advocates argue Wales could rejoin the EU as an independent nation
- Cost of independence — Conservatives cite "billions to our economy"; Plaid disputes these figures
Cultural
- Welsh language — central to national identity; language rights seen as incomplete within the UK
- Generational shift — 72% of 25-34 year olds backing independence suggests rising long-term support
Constitutional
- Federalism vs Independence — Labour pushes strengthening devolution; Plaid says the current system is "unsustainable"
- Crown Estate — control over Welsh waters and energy resources a key sovereignty issue
Independence Movement
- YesCymru — main grassroots campaign group; hold annual March for Independence events
- Indy Curiad (Independence Beat) — cultural/arts wing of the movement
- AUOB Cymru — organises marches (Barry Apr 2025, Apr 2026; Cardiff, Bangor, Wrexham, Carmarthen, Swansea)
- Largest recent march: ~10,000 in Cardiff (2022)
Comparison to Scotland
| Metric | Wales | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| Independence support | 26-35% | ~45-50% |
| Young people support | 72% of 25-34 yr olds | Similar age skew |
| Pro-indy in government | Yes (Plaid Cymru, minority) | Yes (SNP since 2007) |
| Indyref commitment | No this term | Ongoing push for indyref2 |
| Party dominance | Plaid ~30-32% vote share | SNP ~45-50% vote share |
Plaid is explicitly following the SNP model: get into power → make the case → secure a referendum. However, Rhun has been more cautious, ruling out a referendum this term. The SNP's difficulties (internal divisions, declining polls) have been noted by Welsh observers.
Twitter/X Discussion
Source: Nitter search, 26 May 2026
No significant discussion found on Nitter/X for this period — section created on setup.
Reddit Discussion
Source: Reddit, 26 May 2026
No significant discussion found yet — section created on setup.
Sources
- Nation.Cymru: https://nation.cymru/
- Wales Online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/
- YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/welsh-independence
- Cardiff University Welsh Political Barometer
- YesCymru: https://www.yes.cymru/