# Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker # Welsh Independence — Public Opinion & Debate Tracker **Last updated:** 27 May 2026 — no major new independence developments since 26 May. Senedd is in Whitsun recess. --- ## Context Welsh independence (annibyniaeth i Gymru) has become a live political issue since Plaid Cymru won the most seats in the May 2026 Senedd election and formed a minority government under First Minister **Rhun ap Iorwerth**. Plaid is the first non-Labour party to lead Wales. While the party has ruled out a referendum in this Senedd term, it has committed to "making the case" for independence through government, including a commissioned White Paper. --- ## Latest Polling | Poll | Date | Yes | No | Don't Know | Notes | |------|------|-----|-----|-----------|-------| | **YouGov** | Jan 2026 | 26% | 54% | 20% | 1,220 adults; only 1% listed independence as top UK Govt priority | | **YouGov/BBC** | ~Apr 2026 | 32% | 52% | 16% | Only 56% of Plaid voters backed independence | | **Redfield & Wilton / YesCymru** | Mar-Apr 2025 | 35% | 50% | 14% | 41% Yes excl. DKs; "milestone" — 72% of 25-34 year olds backed independence | | **Redfield & Wilton** | Jul 2023 | 32% | 58% | 10% | 53% of 18-24 year olds backed Yes | **Trend:** Support has been on a slow upward trajectory, with the Redfield & Wilton/YesCymru poll (35%, 41% excl. DKs) described as a "milestone moment" by YesCymru Chair Phyl Griffiths. The most significant shift is generational — 72% of 25-34 year olds support independence. --- ## Party Positions | Party | Position | Detail | |-------|----------|--------| | **Plaid Cymru** | ✅ For | "Our nation is on a journey to independence." No referendum this term. Will request devolution of indyref power. £500k White Paper commissioned. | | **Welsh Labour** | ❌ Against | "A strong Wales in a strong United Kingdom." Wants Constitutional Reform Act to protect devolution. | | **Welsh Conservatives** | ❌ Against | Calls independence a "fantasy" — says it'd cost billions, jeopardise pensions, draw "a slate curtain across the Welsh border." | | **Reform UK** | ❌ Against | Welsh leader Dan Thomas: "Rhun's push for independence will divide Wales." Called White Paper "a distraction." | | **Welsh Liberal Democrats** | ❌ Against | Second priority in manifesto: "Stop independence." Pledged "not a single penny" on independence agenda. | | **Wales Green Party** | ✅ For | Leader Anthony Slaughter: "Independence is not just viable but essential to building the fairer, greener future for Wales." | --- ## Plaid Cymru Government's Position Rhun ap Iorwerth became First Minister on **12 May 2026** with support from the two Green MSs (Labour and Lib Dems abstained). Key commitments: - **No referendum in this term** — ruled out publicly multiple times - **"Make the case"** — use government to "prove to people it would be possible" - **Request devolution of indyref power** — formally request Westminster devolve the right to decide on timeline, question and process - **White Paper** — £500k commission to produce a detailed case for independence - **Celtic Alliance** — ap Iorwerth has pushed for a Celtic Alliance, declaring "the old union is dead" - **Crown Estate campaign (25 May)** — Plaid Cymru launched a public messaging campaign demanding control over the Crown Estate, arguing Wales' natural resources should be managed in Wales, not Westminster. This is their first major independence-adjacent public campaign since forming government. - **"Wales Must Define Itself" (26 May)** — Nation.Cymru opinion piece by Ben Wildsmith analyses Plaid's government and the wider constitutional questions around Welsh national identity post-election --- ## Key Arguments ### Economic - **Barnett Formula** — Yes side argues Wales is underfunded by billions; No side says independence would expose a major fiscal gap - **Oil/Energy** — Crown Estate revenues from Welsh waters are a major flashpoint; YesCymru campaigning on resource sovereignty - **EU Membership** — Plaid uses post-Brexit arguments; advocates argue Wales could rejoin the EU as an independent nation - **Cost of independence** — Conservatives cite "billions to our economy"; Plaid disputes these figures ### Cultural - **Welsh language** — central to national identity; language rights seen as incomplete within the UK - **Generational shift** — 72% of 25-34 year olds backing independence suggests rising long-term support ### Constitutional - **Federalism vs Independence** — Labour pushes strengthening devolution; Plaid says the current system is "unsustainable" - **Crown Estate** — control over Welsh waters and energy resources a key sovereignty issue --- ## Independence Movement - **YesCymru** — main grassroots campaign group; hold annual March for Independence events - **Indy Curiad (Independence Beat)** — cultural/arts wing of the movement - **AUOB Cymru** — organises marches (Barry Apr 2025, Apr 2026; Cardiff, Bangor, Wrexham, Carmarthen, Swansea) - Largest recent march: ~10,000 in Cardiff (2022) --- ## Comparison to Scotland | Metric | Wales | Scotland | |--------|-------|----------| | Independence support | 26-35% | ~45-50% | | Young people support | 72% of 25-34 yr olds | Similar age skew | | Pro-indy in government | Yes (Plaid Cymru, minority) | Yes (SNP since 2007) | | Indyref commitment | No this term | Ongoing push for indyref2 | | Party dominance | Plaid ~30-32% vote share | SNP ~45-50% vote share | Plaid is explicitly following the SNP model: get into power → make the case → secure a referendum. However, Rhun has been more cautious, ruling out a referendum this term. The SNP's difficulties (internal divisions, declining polls) have been noted by Welsh observers. --- ## Twitter/X Discussion > *Source: Nitter search, 26 May 2026* *No significant discussion found on Nitter/X for this period — section created on setup.* ## Reddit Discussion > *Source: Reddit, 26 May 2026* *No significant discussion found yet — section created on setup.* --- ## Sources - Nation.Cymru: https://nation.cymru/ - Wales Online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/ - YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/welsh-independence - Cardiff University Welsh Political Barometer - YesCymru: https://www.yes.cymru/