Makerfield By-Election 2026

Last updated: 3 June 2026 (20:47)

Polling & Key Dynamics (Eve of Poll - June 18, 2026)

The contest is highly dynamic, with key narratives revolving around the split in the right and Labour's internal positioning.

Key Polling Data Highlights:

Survation/Sunday Times (Recent): LAB 43%, REF 40%, Restore 7% among likely voters.
Yesterday's Polls (4 June Fieldwork): LAB 46% vs REF 41%.
Overall Dynamic: The race is expected to be decided by the split between Reform UK and the right-wing vote (Restore Britain).

Key Narratives & Context:

Right-Split Holding: The key dynamic is whether the right-wing vote splits between Reform UK and Restore Britain, which could swing the result significantly.
Burnham's Lead: Andy Burnham maintains a lead over the Labour party brand, but the contest remains close.
Voter Sentiment: Polls show that voters are highly sensitive to social media controversies (e.g., Kenyon's past posts) and broader issues like cost of living and the high street.

Key Personal & Political Incidents

Kenyon Controversy: Robert Kenyon's past social media history, including controversial comments regarding abortion and alleged association with far-right figures, is a central theme, heavily scrutinized by media and online commentary.
Reform/Restore Dynamic: The relationship between Reform UK (represented by Robert Kenyon) and Restore Britain (represented by Rebecca Shepherd) is volatile, with some analysts suggesting the latter could become a larger factor in the outcome.
Burnham's Positioning: Burnham is actively positioning himself as the unifying figure, attempting to pull Labour factions together while signaling a potential future leadership challenge against Starmer. His focus on local issues (miners' pension, housing) remains a powerful tool for connecting with his base.
Internal Fissures: The split between Labour loyalists and the desire for a leadership change is evident, with some MPs refusing to campaign for Burnham—a significant internal leak.

Conclusion & Outlook

The by-election is framed as a "test" for the future of UK politics: whether local identity, social media conduct, and party unity can overcome broader ideological divides. The result will be heavily influenced by which side—the establishment-aligned Labour narrative or the populist Reform/Restore dynamic—gains traction among voters concerned with cost of living and cultural identity.

Next Steps:

Monitor the final 48 hours for any late polling releases or major social media reactions.
Watch the BBC Question Time tonight for direct commentary on the candidates' strategies.