# Research Methodology

# Research Methodology

## Approach

This is financial OSINT applied to political movements. The goal is mapping networks, not just listing donations.

### Core Questions (per target)

1. **Who gives them money?** (Donors, patrons, crowdfunding backers)
2. **Where does it come from?** (Domestic/foreign, individual/corporate/state)
3. **How does it move?** (Direct donation, company pass-through, charity, crypto, cash)
4. **What do they spend it on?** (Media, legal fees, organising, property, personal enrichment)
5. **Who else does the funder support?** (Network mapping — shared donors reveal alliances)

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## Research Phases

### Phase 1: Public Records Sweep
- Electoral Commission: all donations >£7,500 to registered parties
- Companies House: directorships, shareholdings, PSC (Persons with Significant Control) for donor companies
- Charity Commission: registered charities with political adjacent activity
- Land Registry: property ownership for key figures and orgs
- OpenCorporates: international company connections

### Phase 2: Informal Economy
- Crowdfunding platforms: GoFundMe, GiveSendGo, Kickstarter (archived campaigns)
- Patreon: creator pages, patron counts, tier structures
- Telegram: paid channels, donation bots, crypto wallets posted in chats
- YouTube/X monetisation: SuperChats, subscriber counts, sponsor credits
- Merchandise stores: Shopify/Teespring/etc. — domain WHOIS, company registration

### Phase 3: International Flows
- US 501(c)(3) and 501(c)(4) filings for orgs with UK activity
- IRS Form 990 for American donors funding UK entities
- Russian foundation reports (where available pre-sanctions)
- EU populist party financial disclosures (Europarl requirements)
- Crypto wallet analysis (public addresses posted by groups)

### Phase 4: Network Mapping
- Build entity graph: Person → Company → Donation → Recipient
- Identify shared directors, shared addresses, shared accountants
- Map temporal patterns (donation clusters around events — riots, elections, court cases)
- Cross-reference with known intelligence front organisations

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## Verification Standards

### Confidence Levels

| Level | Definition | Evidence Required |
|-------|-----------|-------------------|
| **CONFIRMED** | Documented in official/public record | Electoral Commission filing, court document, company filing |
| **REPORTED** | Published by credible investigative source | Named journalist at major outlet, academic paper, NGO report |
| **ALLEGED** | Claimed by involved party or single source | Self-reported, leaked document, anonymous source |
| **SPECULATIVE** | Pattern-based inference | Temporal correlation, shared address, circumstantial |

### Rules

- Never publish SPECULATIVE as fact. Always label clearly.
- Archive every URL within 24 hours of citing it.
- Cross-reference: a fact needs 2+ independent sources to be CONFIRMED.
- Distinguish between "X donated to Y" and "X's company donated to Y" — legal personality matters.
- Track name changes: far-right groups rebrand frequently.

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## Tools & Techniques

### OSINT Toolkit
- **Maltego / yEd**: Network graph visualisation
- **OpenRefine**: Bulk data cleaning (Electoral Commission CSVs)
- **Wayback Machine / archive.today**: URL preservation
- **Aleph (OCCRP)**: Cross-border entity search
- **OpenSanctions**: Sanctions/PEP database checks
- **ICIJ Offshore Leaks**: Panama Papers, Pandora Papers connections

### Search Patterns
- Site-specific: `site:electoralcommission.org.uk "Reform UK"`
- Company searches: `site:companieshouse.gov.uk [director name]`
- Charity searches: `site:charitycommission.gov.uk [org name]`
- Court records: `site:caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk [name]`

### Data Collection
- Download Electoral Commission bulk data quarterly
- Companies House API for structured company/person data
- Charity Commission API for registered charity searches
- FOI requests to Electoral Commission for refused donations

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## Legal Considerations

- Electoral Commission data is public record — safe to use.
- Companies House data is public record — safe to use.
- Charity Commission data is public record — safe to use.
- GDPR: living individuals have rights. Public interest defence applies to political research, but be careful with personal financial data not in public record.
- Defamation: always distinguish between fact and allegation. Don't allege criminal conduct without evidence.
- Contempt of court: be careful around active proceedings.