Defence & Security

Defence & Security 
 Last updated: 25 May 2026 
 
 EU Defence Integration 
 PESCO / European Defence Fund / EDIRPA 
 
 PESCO (Permanent Structured Cooperation): 68 projects running, covering military training, cyber, maritime security, and medical support. Member states committed to increasing defence budgets, but compliance remains uneven. 
 European Defence Fund (EDF): €8 billion for 2021-2027 — funding joint R&D for defence capabilities. Next MFF expected to substantially increase this. 
 EDIRPA (European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act): Operational since 2023 — incentivises joint procurement, addresses the fragmentation of European defence procurement. 
 EU military mobility: Von der Leyen headed to Lithuania for "drone crisis talks" (May 2026), emphasising the military mobility/airspace security nexus. 
 
 Strategic Compass 
 
 The EU's Strategic Compass (adopted March 2022) continues implementation 
 Pushes the bloc to define itself as a credible security actor independent of the US 
 Rapid Deployment Capacity (up to 5,000 troops) not yet fully operational — member states have been slow to commit forces 
 
 
 EU-NATO Cooperation 
 Trump/Iran War Context 
 The US-Iran war (Feb 2026) has fundamentally reshaped the transatlantic dynamic: 
 
 "Europe races to make it harder for Trump to rattle NATO" (Politico) — European leaders actively building structures that limit US leverage over NATO 
 Trump's chaotic decision-making on troop deployments — first refusing to commit troops to Poland, then U-turning to pledge an additional 5,000 troops 
 US cut troop levels in Germany by 5,000 amid Trump's personal spat with Merz 
 Rubio tried to reassure allies but acknowledged Trump's "disappointment" with NATO would be discussed at the Ankara summit 
 
 Joint Declaration 
 
 The 2023 and 2024 EU-NATO Joint Declarations remain the framework for cooperation 
 Focus areas: military mobility, cyber defence, hybrid threats, resilience of critical infrastructure 
 The Trump/Iran war has accelerated cooperation — EU sees NATO as vulnerable to US domestic politics 
 
 
 Ukraine War (May 2026) 
 Current Situation (Day 1,552) 
 
 Russia launched an Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile strike on Kyiv on 24 May 2026 — described as a "deranged attack" and "reckless nuclear brinkmanship" 
 Russia threatens more Kyiv strikes and told foreign nationals to leave 
 A Luhansk strike sparked Russian accusations and vows to retaliate 
 Russia testing NATO's eastern flank via drone incursions into Polish/Romanian airspace 
 Frontlines have shifted little in 2025-26 — a war of attrition dominated by drone warfare, artillery duels, and missile strikes on infrastructure 
 
 EU Military Aid 
 
 European Peace Facility (EPF): Topped up multiple times. Total has exceeded €12 billion in military support for Ukraine 
 Ammunition plan: The "one million shells" initiative fell short — only ~500,000 delivered by early 2025. EU is now pursuing longer-term production contracts 
 Training mission (EUMAM Ukraine): Has trained over 60,000 Ukrainian soldiers 
 Lithuania calling for frozen Russian assets to be used for Ukraine funding 
 
 Ukraine's NATO Membership 
 
 Sweden publicly backed Ukraine's path to NATO 
 Rutte confirmed Zelenskyy would attend the NATO summit in Ankara 
 The Ankara summit is seen as a pivotal moment for Ukraine's membership pathway 
 No consensus yet — US, Germany, and Hungary (pre-Orbán) reluctant; UK, Poland, Baltic states pushing hard 
 
 European Troop Deployments 
 
 Discussions ongoing about European troop deployments for post-war security guarantees 
 UK troops already deployed in Estonia as part of NATO's enhanced Forward Presence 
 France has floated the idea of a "European military mission" to Ukraine 
 No formal decision taken — highly sensitive given risk of direct escalation with Russia 
 
 
 National Defence Spending 
 Across Europe, defence spending has surged: 
 
 NATO target of 2% GDP is now met by 23 of 32 members (up from 8 in 2022) 
 Several countries pushing toward 2.5% or 3% (Poland on track for 4%) 
 Germany: €100bn special fund for the Bundeswehr has yielded mixed results — bureaucratic inertia despite increased spending. BBC reported US troop withdrawal from Germany seen as "foreseeable" 
 UK: Defence spending at 2.3% GDP — Labour committed to maintaining this. UK-EU security pact being negotiated (see EU-UK Relations) 
 France: Macron declared Europe's freedom faces its greatest threat since WW2 
 Poland: Pushing 4% GDP — Europe's highest proportional spender, massive modernisation programme 
 
 
 European Defence Industry 
 Joint Procurement 
 
 EDIRPA driving collaborative procurement (ammunition, air defence, drones) 
 European allies rushing to bolster Cyprus defences after drones targeted a British base 
 EU trying to reduce dependency on US defence equipment 
 
 German Zeitenwende 
 
 The €100bn special fund and policy shift announced by Scholz in Feb 2022 
 Results mixed: procurement still slow, bureaucracy slow to adapt 
 Germany committing to long-term contracts for ammunition, Eurofighter, naval vessels 
 But US troop withdrawal and Merz's difficult coalition have created uncertainty 
 
 French Push for Strategic Autonomy 
 
 France continues pushing for European strategic autonomy from the US 
 2027 presidential race (Philippe favourite) will determine direction 
 Macron has long argued Europe cannot rely on the US for its security 
 
 
 UK-EU Defence Pact (May 2026) 
 The flagship deliverable of Starmer's EU reset: 
 
 Labour's David Lammy promised a new UK-EU security pact 
 Covers military mobility, joint procurement, intelligence sharing, and cyber defence 
 Kaja Kallas stated "fishing shouldn't block a defence pact" — indicating the political will to separate defence negotiations from broader TCA disputes 
 
 
 Sources 
 
 Politico Europe — "Europe races to make it harder for Trump to rattle NATO" (2026) 
 BBC News — "Nato chief urges Europeans to boost defence spending" (2026) 
 BBC News — "Macron: Europe's freedom faces greatest threat since WW2" (2026) 
 BBC News — "US cuts 5,000 troops from Germany" (2026) 
 BBC News — "UK wargamed AI-driven NATO conflict with Russia" (2026) 
 BBC News — "Labour's Lammy promises new UK-EU security pact" (2026) 
 BBC News — "European allies rush to bolster Cyprus defences after drone attack on British base" (2026) 
 Politico Europe — "Von der Leyen heads to Lithuania for drone crisis talks" (May 2026) 
 Politico Europe — "Sweden backs Ukraine's path to NATO" (2026) 
 Politico Europe — "Zelenskyy confirmed for Ankara NATO summit" (2026) 
 Wikipedia — PESCO, Strategic Compass, European Defence Fund